In this week’s briefing, I break down a dramatic series of developments shaping America’s global and domestic posture — from the fragile peace process in Gaza and Trump’s consideration of arming Ukraine with Tomahawks, to a renewed trade war with China, the creation of a Qatari air-training base in the U.S., the ongoing government shutdown, and the “No Kings” protest movement spreading across American cities.
On the foreign front, a fragile peace process is unfolding in the Middle East; economic tensions with China have reignited; and new U.S. defense partnerships are reshaping alliances. Domestically, the federal government remains partially shut down, and public anger is spilling into the streets.
After more than two years of conflict, Israel and Hamas have entered into a cease-fire under the new U.S.-brokered Gaza peace plan. Israeli forces have withdrawn from central Gaza, and Hamas has released all surviving Israeli hostages in exchange for roughly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners. The cease-fire, monitored by the United States, Egypt, and Qatar, appears to be holding for now — though the toughest questions remain: who will govern Gaza, what will become of Hamas’s weapons, and how the international community will manage reconstruction in a war-torn enclave.
AP report | Politico coverage
In Europe, President Trump announced he is considering providing Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine should Russia refuse to negotiate an end to the war. The idea, still under review, would mark a dramatic escalation in the kind of long-range weaponry available to Kyiv and has drawn warnings from Moscow. This move by Trump and NATO’s pledge to defend its territory against Russia’s violations is necessary to warn-off Russia’s increased aggression. Moreover, the U.S. and Europe need to increase pressure on Russia to compel Putin to look for off-ramps to this disastrous and increasingly dangerous war.
Reuters analysis
Meanwhile, a new trade war with China has erupted after Beijing imposed fresh restrictions on exports of rare-earth minerals crucial to U.S. defense and technology sectors. In response, Trump announced a 100 percent tariff on all Chinese imports, effective November 1, signaling the end of even a semblance of economic détente. Markets have responded sharply, and China has hinted at retaliation. Winning the last battle in the trade war, when Trump backed off sanctions in the Spring, President Xi thinks he has the upper hand in a trade war with the U.S. Xi has likely overplayed his hand and both sides will be forced to compromise to avoid an economic crisis.
Reuters coverage | Politico report
At home, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth confirmed that Qatar will establish a joint air-training program and base at Mountain Home Air Force Base in Idaho to prepare Qatari pilots for F-15QA fighter operations. The announcement drew backlash from nationalist commentators and from across the political spectrum. Observers on the right are asking, how a Qatari base represents “America First” values and there are calls for an investigation over whether this base was granted in exchange for a “free” plane gifted to Trump.
Yahoo report | Guardian update
Beyond foreign policy, the federal government shutdown continues into its second week with no resolution in sight. Congressional negotiations remain stalled over healthcare funding and deep budget cuts demanded by the White House. The shutdown has furloughed hundreds of thousands of federal workers and suspended key services across multiple departments, further straining a bureaucracy already hollowed out by loyalty purges and political appointments. This could all end if Speaker Johnson bring the U.S. House to session to negotiate. But he won’t because the U.S. House would concurrently vote to release the Epstein files, implicating Trump in the sexual abuse of minors.
Public frustration with government dysfunction is also mounting. On October 18, demonstrators in Washington, D.C., and cities across the United States will participate in the “No Kings” protest, condemning the administration’s authoritarian overreach and disregard for constitutional checks and balances. This will be the opportunity to send the signal that Trump’s militiarization of our cities, attacks on our neighbors, lawless behavior of ICE, economic mismanagement making life unaffordable for Americans to cut taxes for billionaires, etc., is illegitimate.
Show up for the No Kings protests and make your voice heard!!!
