My latest Substack Live covered the prospects for peace in Ukraine, the failures of the outgoing Congress, the growing consequences of Trump’s war in Iran, and what the 2026 midterm elections mean for the future. I also answered subscriber questions about Starlink, China and Russia, and how I’ve redirected millions of dollars from my Senate campaign to help elect Democrats across the country.
We started with Ukraine, where the Trump administration is once again attempting to revive peace negotiations. I’m skeptical that this latest round will produce anything meaningful beyond a potential large-scale prisoner exchange.
Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff are again leading discussions with Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Neither has the diplomatic experience or expertise necessary to navigate negotiations of this complexity. Meanwhile, Russia continues to insist on maximalist demands, including rolling NATO back to its 1997 boundaries. These are nonstarters, and Putin knows it.
Russia has failed to achieve its battlefield objectives, but Putin appears content to prolong the war, weaponize the winter by attacking Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, and wait for more favorable conditions. A meaningful peace agreement will require changing Russia’s calculations, not accommodating its demands. We also discussed the persistent Russian myth that NATO promised never to expand eastward and why the historical record does not support that claim.
From there, I turned to Congress, starting with a criticism of my own party. Eleven Democratic members missed a critical vote on the impeachment of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. Whatever the logistical difficulties, missing a vote of that magnitude is unacceptable. If we’re going to demand accountability from Republicans, we must hold Democrats to high standards as well.
The larger failure, however, belongs to congressional Republicans, who continue to put loyalty to Trump ahead of their constitutional responsibilities. Even after suffering substantial losses in the midterms, they have shown little willingness to break with the president or hold his administration accountable. I don’t expect much to change before the new Congress is sworn in.
We also discussed Trump’s disastrous war in Iran, which continues to drive up energy costs, disrupt international shipping, and create opportunities for America’s adversaries. Russia benefits from higher oil prices and, in my assessment, is providing intelligence support to Iran. China continues purchasing Iranian oil while benefiting from its relationships with both Moscow and Tehran.
Trump claims the war is winding down, but Iran continues threatening shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. I see no credible American diplomatic strategy for ending the conflict. A negotiated settlement will likely require security assurances and sanctions relief, and European governments may need to play a larger diplomatic role.
During the audience Q&A, we examined the reported restrictions on Starlink and Starshield services supporting Ukraine. I explained why these disruptions raise serious questions about the Trump administration’s involvement and why congressional oversight will be essential. We also discussed Chinese students at American universities, the risks of intellectual property theft, and why protecting national security should not mean abandoning America’s longstanding openness to talented students and immigrants.
Finally, I shared an update on what I’ve been doing since my Florida Senate primary.
