I watched Fox News this morning because on my morning walk three men argued with me how misinformed I am when it comes to the news. These guys, especially an Italian gentleman, argued about immigration. How Biden and the Democrats aren’t going anything and how badly we need Trump. This Italian gentleman was very irate in complaining that Biden is a terrible president. I was so upset. I was trying to tell them that it was the Republican party that was blocking any border solutions, but of course they wouldn’t listen. I explained how Trump wants to run his election on immigration so HE can resolve it. He does not want Biden to get any credit so any of Biden’s solutions are ignored. The Italian gentleman was very obstinate, kept smiling and telling me how misinformed I am. It was awful!!! I felt terrible. It made me feel that Trump just might win the presidency. I came home and put on Fox News. It was revolting. The media is set up to destroy our country!! The right has their stations and the left has theirs. I can only pray that more people are watching the correct shows, but which ones are these? I believe Fox promotes Trump and the Republicans. To me, this is dangerous!! They make Biden the bad guy. It is such gaslighting!! They call him a dictator and say how dangerous he is. I cannot believe this is happening. It is extremely upsetting to me!!!
Curious: the Italian gentleman’s family immigrated at one point and they were surely discriminated against so does he think being targeted and demonized is just some horrible rite of passage?
I want to just say, don’t let that jerk make you feel badly.
Italians are notorious misogynists and THAT kind of testosterone, macho man crap is just CRAP. This is exactly why we women must VOTE and bring every other woman that Wants The Right to Speak, VOTE, Read, Write, Live Freely to get registered. Then WE must go vote in every election from now until we die!
They are Ignorant Men with Issues.
Here’s a BIG HUG from me to you. Don’t let the bastards get you down!
Dearest Sheila, I understand your frustrations and am sorry you are so upset...I get that way at times, too. All I can tell you is to take a huge, deep breath, let it out slowly, and know there are millions of us out there who feel as you do.
Then, do your best to talk with those who would listen, encourage them to get to the polls in November, and vote out the politicians who embrace these lies.
Go ahead and cry, or beat a pillow, and then get back on the good foot. We need you!
Thanks Celeste!! You’re very kind. You’re very much appreciated. I will fight to keep Trump out of office. I hope the 14th amendment disqualifies him. It is so plain to me that this needs to happen!!
I CANNOT for the life of me Understand why Mike Johnson & his religious views/leaders are supporting the Trump/Putin ticket. The Most UnChristian combination possible is who he supports! WHY?
He is volunteering & willing to destroy Ukraine and every Ukrainian man, woman, & child Plus this makes all the rest of Europe vulnerable.
What a leader of nothing! He’s a sellout. He’s worse than McCarthy and needs to go away…far, far away from any role in governance.
The Christian Nationalists do not follow Christ, but their own White Supremacist weird religion. That is the group that is complaining that Christ is too WOKE! MAGA Mikey Johnson follows Trump, so in other words he worships false Gods. As someone who lives back and forth between the US and Europe, I can see the disadvantages on both sides. I am grateful that Hungary his been sidelined on this. Let us hope that can happen for Sweden's acceptance into NATO too.
I Agree- just also think typical (older) American Christians may not get that Reality. The fact the word Christian appears in their false moniker would have not registered with my Pentecostal mom….
Oral Roberts & Bill Graham & all those hucksters laid the groundwork for this garbage. I am an atheist now because if the Invisible Guy-in-the-Sky hasn’t zapped the cheaters, liars, grifting false preachers here now, when is it gonna happen? When is enough going to be enough for him/her/it to just zap the lying criminals???
Mike Johnson is simply following orders from Trump. It has nothing to do with religion. Maybe he wants people to believe that he is doing gods work. This is why religion has no place in politics!!!
I agree in part! I believe that following Trump as a devotee is MAGA Mikey Johnson's (MMJ)new religion, in the slavish, sheep-like way that they all follow him. Which means that Trump is running the Republican part of the government even though he was elected. If Dems get back in in both branches of Congress and in the White House, I propose they make it illegal to run the country by Proxy! It must be elected officials. What Trump is doing now through MMJ is governing for his campaign. We need to defeat him and defeat him BIG!
I was so pleased to see the EU vote for 50 billion € for Ukraine. I also am glad that they are discussing giving frozen Russian assets to Ukraine to help fund their recovery. We know the direct effect on Ukraine is an erosion of morale. We need to help David fight Goliath. I am still counting on Biden to figure a way out of the morass the Republican leadership has put the Ukraine in. I truly believe if the aid package has been passed those 3 US military would not have been killed because it would have deescalated the situation in the ME to see that we were not backing down from our allies, and made Iran less bold in backing rebels to attack us. Their blood is on Republican hands! The Republicans are emboldening our enemies to attack us. Let us hope that wisdom and cool heads prevail in our government and get this bill passed. We need this bill passed to help Ukraine and to help us with our legal immigration program, and to decrease the number of people entering without legal documentation.
Not supporting Ukraine undos all the positive things president Biden has done these last Three years to once again make us a great nation in the eys of the world.
He was complaining that he himself immigrated, but he did it legally!! He was saying how immigrants are getting away with coming into the country and getting $2500.00 a month!!
By “getting this” I mean immigrants receiving $2500.00 per month. Does anyone know who is receiving these monies? The Italian gentleman who was speaking to me this morning said that illegal immigrants are getting this money. I don’t know anything about this. So I’m just asking if anyone does know if this is true. I’m curious cause he was pissed off about it.
Despite the fact a majority of Congressional Republicans, especially those on the Senate side, support arming Ukraine, today's GOP is beholden to Mango Mussolini and the MAGA base. As far as I can tell, the MAGA base absolutely abhors Zelenskyy and has a fetish for Putin and his brand of authoritarianism. Ditto for Trump.
Then there's the suckers who fall for the mirage of Russia as a defender/bastion of traditional values. They are on par with the Leftists who viewed the USSR as a bastion of progress and equality.
I have finally subscribed because I ENJOY your analysis and find your opinions to be informed and thoughtful. It's worth it to me, to be able to comment on your work and potentially interact exchanging ideas.
Be WARNED, I am a 'Climate Doomer' and that WILL creep into MY analysis. Particularly since you, and the mainstream commentators, seem BLIND to the effect that the Climate Crisis is having on the world today.
On a personal note. I am AUTISTIC and OLD (an unusual combination for autistic men). Part of that is experiencing reality slightly differently than most. I have kinesthetic synesthesia, particularly around TEXT. I FEEL words more than I SEE them.
This leads to "creative" formatting in my writing. I will NOT Apologize for this. I "masked" my autism and 'difference' my entire adult life. I'm retired now, I will write as I want.
SO.
My perception of the US internal political situation is that we are in a 'functional' state of civil war. If the MILITARY had not "held" on J6 and had supported Trump, we would be in an active "hot war". As it is, from what I can see, around 1,200 officers were quietly "purged" for their J6 activities.
Although the COUP failed, Biden was unable to crush the conspirators. Both in Congress and in the Federal Agencies. FBI has to be regarded as "suspect loyalty" now, Homeland Security is SOLIDLY TRUMPIST. Hence the current battle to impeach Biden's Secretary of DHS.
If you remember in 2020, the "unmarked" Internal Security units that the Trumpists deployed in Portland and in DC were funded out of DHS. The Trumpists have fought a MAJOR action to block the Democrats from regaining control of the Agency.
We are in a "functional" state of Civil War in the US. The 24' Elections are going to be the 'decisive battle'. Which is why Congress is getting more and more dysfunctional. They are increasingly focused on that battle and they perceive Putin as an "ally".
They don't want to send any more money to Ukraine. Period. And they have a "slim" majority in Congress.
In a country that split 49% Republican, 51% Democrat in the last three election cycles.
In a country where 2 out of 3 WHITE Americans VOTES Trumpublican.
In a country where WHITES still make up about 66% of the US population.
BUT, will only be 47% by 2040.
Biden has attempted to "win over" enough White voters to "defuse and de-escalate" the situation. I don't think it worked.
NOW.
Against that internal situation I would argue that we are ALREADY "At WAR" with China. Russia's invasion of Ukraine was the "Fort Sumpter" moment of the "Climate Crisis". You AREN'T "seeing" just HOW BAD the Climate Situation has become. Here's what I wrote in March of 2022.
We are having a Sarajevo (1914) moment. In Ukraine, we may be seeing the first war of the “Climate Crisis”. See the graph above, that’s what a “Climate Crisis” looks like.
If you suggest that the war in Ukraine is related to Climate Change, people tell you Putin doesn’t care about “Climate Change”. People are IDIOTS.
Last Thoughts.
You aren't factoring the Climate Crisis into your analysis. You should, it's significant. Here is a rough timeline as I see it. Feel free to critique.
The "Climate Crisis" is HERE, NOW.
The "tripwire" signal was the sudden decline in the ALBEDO from 2004 to 2023.
The Earth Energy Imbalance in 2004 was +0.3W/m2, in 2023 it was +1.4W/m2.
Russia, which uses secret climate models, invades Crimea in 2014. For NO APPARENT reason.
Russia, INTERFERES in American elections in 2015/2016 to HELP Trump. This is an INSANE escalation of hostilities and RISK for Putin.
2017-2020, Russia uses Trump to starve Ukraine of resources and support. Trump and GOP run an "anti-Ukraine" disinformation campaign and attempt to tie the Bidens to it.
February 2020, Covid-19 happens.
November 2020, Trump loses election in a 49%/51% narrow loss to Biden.
2021, Trump tries for a COUP after losing the Election. Trump probably would have won in 2020 if COVID hadn't happened.
May 2021, Putin and Xi meet in Siberia to sign a "moonbase" treaty.
Putin gets ready to invade Ukraine. Xi buys up 50% of the GLOBAL grain reserves by Dec 2021. Enough to supply China with 18 months of food reserves.
Feb 2022 Xi asks Putin to delay attack on Ukraine until AFTER the Winter Olympics. Putin agrees.
Putin invades Ukraine but botches the strike. Although I am less sure about that as time goes by.
The US gets sucked into defending Ukraine. We start supplying them and BURNING through our ammunition reserves. Ukraine becomes a "Peninsular War" for the West.
August 2022, China starts putting pressure on Taiwan, where 90%+ of ALL Computer Chips are MADE.
Biden sends Pelosi to Taiwan, commits to defending it "like it was the 51st state". A DIVIDED Senate passes the CHIPS Act, 99-0, to spend $55 Billion to boost US domestic production of computer chips to 10% of demand.
That's the amount we would need to "resupply" our military if we LOST Taiwan.
We will get there in about 10 years.
Meanwhile, China is making diplomatic moves across the globe from Mexico to Tuvalu in order to win allies.
In Cambodia it's revealed that a new Chinese NAVY BASE has been completed after being built in secret for 5 years.
The Saudi's join the BRIC coalition and it continues to gain traction. China pushes to dethrone the dollar as the reserve currency and destroy the American ability to "seize" the assets of anyone we don't like.
Then, for NO APPARENT REASON, Hamas attacks Israel. A US "client state" that WE HAVE to DEFEND.
Further depleting our munition stores and turning even more of the Global 80% against us.
China WANTS TRUMP to WIN in a "contested" election. Preferably one decided by the Supreme Court.
They could declare "no confidence" in the US Election result and SANCTION America. A LOT of the world would probably go along with that. Including Taiwan.
That/s when we will fight a "military engagement" with China. We will try to 'liberate" Taiwan and the Chinese will meet us.
I fear it will be like the Russians and Japanese at Tsushima (1904). The Chinese navy is now bigger than ours and it's a LOT NEWER.
The American Century is being CHALLENGED. Right now.
I watched Fox News this morning because on my morning walk three men argued with me how misinformed I am when it comes to the news. These guys, especially an Italian gentleman, argued about immigration. How Biden and the Democrats aren’t going anything and how badly we need Trump. This Italian gentleman was very irate in complaining that Biden is a terrible president. I was so upset. I was trying to tell them that it was the Republican party that was blocking any border solutions, but of course they wouldn’t listen. I explained how Trump wants to run his election on immigration so HE can resolve it. He does not want Biden to get any credit so any of Biden’s solutions are ignored. The Italian gentleman was very obstinate, kept smiling and telling me how misinformed I am. It was awful!!! I felt terrible. It made me feel that Trump just might win the presidency. I came home and put on Fox News. It was revolting. The media is set up to destroy our country!! The right has their stations and the left has theirs. I can only pray that more people are watching the correct shows, but which ones are these? I believe Fox promotes Trump and the Republicans. To me, this is dangerous!! They make Biden the bad guy. It is such gaslighting!! They call him a dictator and say how dangerous he is. I cannot believe this is happening. It is extremely upsetting to me!!!
Curious: the Italian gentleman’s family immigrated at one point and they were surely discriminated against so does he think being targeted and demonized is just some horrible rite of passage?
I want to just say, don’t let that jerk make you feel badly.
Italians are notorious misogynists and THAT kind of testosterone, macho man crap is just CRAP. This is exactly why we women must VOTE and bring every other woman that Wants The Right to Speak, VOTE, Read, Write, Live Freely to get registered. Then WE must go vote in every election from now until we die!
They are Ignorant Men with Issues.
Here’s a BIG HUG from me to you. Don’t let the bastards get you down!
Wow. Thank you so much for your support and hug!! Right back at you!!!😬❤️
Thank you for your hug! 🥰
With all the crazy in the world sharing a Hug 🤗 helped my heart too! 😄😄😄
Dearest Sheila, I understand your frustrations and am sorry you are so upset...I get that way at times, too. All I can tell you is to take a huge, deep breath, let it out slowly, and know there are millions of us out there who feel as you do.
Then, do your best to talk with those who would listen, encourage them to get to the polls in November, and vote out the politicians who embrace these lies.
Go ahead and cry, or beat a pillow, and then get back on the good foot. We need you!
Thanks Celeste!! You’re very kind. You’re very much appreciated. I will fight to keep Trump out of office. I hope the 14th amendment disqualifies him. It is so plain to me that this needs to happen!!
I CANNOT for the life of me Understand why Mike Johnson & his religious views/leaders are supporting the Trump/Putin ticket. The Most UnChristian combination possible is who he supports! WHY?
He is volunteering & willing to destroy Ukraine and every Ukrainian man, woman, & child Plus this makes all the rest of Europe vulnerable.
What a leader of nothing! He’s a sellout. He’s worse than McCarthy and needs to go away…far, far away from any role in governance.
The Christian Nationalists do not follow Christ, but their own White Supremacist weird religion. That is the group that is complaining that Christ is too WOKE! MAGA Mikey Johnson follows Trump, so in other words he worships false Gods. As someone who lives back and forth between the US and Europe, I can see the disadvantages on both sides. I am grateful that Hungary his been sidelined on this. Let us hope that can happen for Sweden's acceptance into NATO too.
I Agree- just also think typical (older) American Christians may not get that Reality. The fact the word Christian appears in their false moniker would have not registered with my Pentecostal mom….
Oral Roberts & Bill Graham & all those hucksters laid the groundwork for this garbage. I am an atheist now because if the Invisible Guy-in-the-Sky hasn’t zapped the cheaters, liars, grifting false preachers here now, when is it gonna happen? When is enough going to be enough for him/her/it to just zap the lying criminals???
I am a fellow atheist. The hypocrisy of it all sickens me, and there are tax breaks on top of it, so this is a big money scam.
Mike Johnson is simply following orders from Trump. It has nothing to do with religion. Maybe he wants people to believe that he is doing gods work. This is why religion has no place in politics!!!
I agree in part! I believe that following Trump as a devotee is MAGA Mikey Johnson's (MMJ)new religion, in the slavish, sheep-like way that they all follow him. Which means that Trump is running the Republican part of the government even though he was elected. If Dems get back in in both branches of Congress and in the White House, I propose they make it illegal to run the country by Proxy! It must be elected officials. What Trump is doing now through MMJ is governing for his campaign. We need to defeat him and defeat him BIG!
I was so pleased to see the EU vote for 50 billion € for Ukraine. I also am glad that they are discussing giving frozen Russian assets to Ukraine to help fund their recovery. We know the direct effect on Ukraine is an erosion of morale. We need to help David fight Goliath. I am still counting on Biden to figure a way out of the morass the Republican leadership has put the Ukraine in. I truly believe if the aid package has been passed those 3 US military would not have been killed because it would have deescalated the situation in the ME to see that we were not backing down from our allies, and made Iran less bold in backing rebels to attack us. Their blood is on Republican hands! The Republicans are emboldening our enemies to attack us. Let us hope that wisdom and cool heads prevail in our government and get this bill passed. We need this bill passed to help Ukraine and to help us with our legal immigration program, and to decrease the number of people entering without legal documentation.
Fabulous!! I’m with you!! Voting for Biden if Trump gets the nomination
Not supporting Ukraine undos all the positive things president Biden has done these last Three years to once again make us a great nation in the eys of the world.
He was complaining that he himself immigrated, but he did it legally!! He was saying how immigrants are getting away with coming into the country and getting $2500.00 a month!!
Idiotic. Idiots.
You mean it’s not true? I can’t imagine them getting this.
By “getting this” I mean immigrants receiving $2500.00 per month. Does anyone know who is receiving these monies? The Italian gentleman who was speaking to me this morning said that illegal immigrants are getting this money. I don’t know anything about this. So I’m just asking if anyone does know if this is true. I’m curious cause he was pissed off about it.
“Also we will have squandered the best opportunity to defang Russia,”. This is what makes me grind my teeth in helpless rage the most.
The sad truth is...........
Despite the fact a majority of Congressional Republicans, especially those on the Senate side, support arming Ukraine, today's GOP is beholden to Mango Mussolini and the MAGA base. As far as I can tell, the MAGA base absolutely abhors Zelenskyy and has a fetish for Putin and his brand of authoritarianism. Ditto for Trump.
Then there's the suckers who fall for the mirage of Russia as a defender/bastion of traditional values. They are on par with the Leftists who viewed the USSR as a bastion of progress and equality.
I have finally subscribed because I ENJOY your analysis and find your opinions to be informed and thoughtful. It's worth it to me, to be able to comment on your work and potentially interact exchanging ideas.
Be WARNED, I am a 'Climate Doomer' and that WILL creep into MY analysis. Particularly since you, and the mainstream commentators, seem BLIND to the effect that the Climate Crisis is having on the world today.
On a personal note. I am AUTISTIC and OLD (an unusual combination for autistic men). Part of that is experiencing reality slightly differently than most. I have kinesthetic synesthesia, particularly around TEXT. I FEEL words more than I SEE them.
This leads to "creative" formatting in my writing. I will NOT Apologize for this. I "masked" my autism and 'difference' my entire adult life. I'm retired now, I will write as I want.
SO.
My perception of the US internal political situation is that we are in a 'functional' state of civil war. If the MILITARY had not "held" on J6 and had supported Trump, we would be in an active "hot war". As it is, from what I can see, around 1,200 officers were quietly "purged" for their J6 activities.
Although the COUP failed, Biden was unable to crush the conspirators. Both in Congress and in the Federal Agencies. FBI has to be regarded as "suspect loyalty" now, Homeland Security is SOLIDLY TRUMPIST. Hence the current battle to impeach Biden's Secretary of DHS.
If you remember in 2020, the "unmarked" Internal Security units that the Trumpists deployed in Portland and in DC were funded out of DHS. The Trumpists have fought a MAJOR action to block the Democrats from regaining control of the Agency.
We are in a "functional" state of Civil War in the US. The 24' Elections are going to be the 'decisive battle'. Which is why Congress is getting more and more dysfunctional. They are increasingly focused on that battle and they perceive Putin as an "ally".
They don't want to send any more money to Ukraine. Period. And they have a "slim" majority in Congress.
In a country that split 49% Republican, 51% Democrat in the last three election cycles.
In a country where 2 out of 3 WHITE Americans VOTES Trumpublican.
In a country where WHITES still make up about 66% of the US population.
BUT, will only be 47% by 2040.
Biden has attempted to "win over" enough White voters to "defuse and de-escalate" the situation. I don't think it worked.
NOW.
Against that internal situation I would argue that we are ALREADY "At WAR" with China. Russia's invasion of Ukraine was the "Fort Sumpter" moment of the "Climate Crisis". You AREN'T "seeing" just HOW BAD the Climate Situation has become. Here's what I wrote in March of 2022.
On Politics : War by other Means — 03
https://smokingtyger.medium.com/on-politics-war-by-other-means-03-9cc78d091ad7
We are having a Sarajevo (1914) moment. In Ukraine, we may be seeing the first war of the “Climate Crisis”. See the graph above, that’s what a “Climate Crisis” looks like.
On Politics, War by Other Means — 04
https://smokingtyger.medium.com/on-politics-war-by-other-means-04-88deca3364aa
Putin’s Strategy is coming into view. If you weren’t clear on it, World War III has started.
On Politics, War by Other Means — 05
https://smokingtyger.medium.com/on-politics-war-by-other-means-05-4f7582c36038
If you suggest that the war in Ukraine is related to Climate Change, people tell you Putin doesn’t care about “Climate Change”. People are IDIOTS.
Last Thoughts.
You aren't factoring the Climate Crisis into your analysis. You should, it's significant. Here is a rough timeline as I see it. Feel free to critique.
The "Climate Crisis" is HERE, NOW.
The "tripwire" signal was the sudden decline in the ALBEDO from 2004 to 2023.
The Earth Energy Imbalance in 2004 was +0.3W/m2, in 2023 it was +1.4W/m2.
Russia, which uses secret climate models, invades Crimea in 2014. For NO APPARENT reason.
Russia, INTERFERES in American elections in 2015/2016 to HELP Trump. This is an INSANE escalation of hostilities and RISK for Putin.
2017-2020, Russia uses Trump to starve Ukraine of resources and support. Trump and GOP run an "anti-Ukraine" disinformation campaign and attempt to tie the Bidens to it.
February 2020, Covid-19 happens.
November 2020, Trump loses election in a 49%/51% narrow loss to Biden.
2021, Trump tries for a COUP after losing the Election. Trump probably would have won in 2020 if COVID hadn't happened.
May 2021, Putin and Xi meet in Siberia to sign a "moonbase" treaty.
Putin gets ready to invade Ukraine. Xi buys up 50% of the GLOBAL grain reserves by Dec 2021. Enough to supply China with 18 months of food reserves.
Feb 2022 Xi asks Putin to delay attack on Ukraine until AFTER the Winter Olympics. Putin agrees.
Putin invades Ukraine but botches the strike. Although I am less sure about that as time goes by.
The US gets sucked into defending Ukraine. We start supplying them and BURNING through our ammunition reserves. Ukraine becomes a "Peninsular War" for the West.
August 2022, China starts putting pressure on Taiwan, where 90%+ of ALL Computer Chips are MADE.
Biden sends Pelosi to Taiwan, commits to defending it "like it was the 51st state". A DIVIDED Senate passes the CHIPS Act, 99-0, to spend $55 Billion to boost US domestic production of computer chips to 10% of demand.
That's the amount we would need to "resupply" our military if we LOST Taiwan.
We will get there in about 10 years.
Meanwhile, China is making diplomatic moves across the globe from Mexico to Tuvalu in order to win allies.
In Cambodia it's revealed that a new Chinese NAVY BASE has been completed after being built in secret for 5 years.
The Saudi's join the BRIC coalition and it continues to gain traction. China pushes to dethrone the dollar as the reserve currency and destroy the American ability to "seize" the assets of anyone we don't like.
Then, for NO APPARENT REASON, Hamas attacks Israel. A US "client state" that WE HAVE to DEFEND.
Further depleting our munition stores and turning even more of the Global 80% against us.
China WANTS TRUMP to WIN in a "contested" election. Preferably one decided by the Supreme Court.
They could declare "no confidence" in the US Election result and SANCTION America. A LOT of the world would probably go along with that. Including Taiwan.
That/s when we will fight a "military engagement" with China. We will try to 'liberate" Taiwan and the Chinese will meet us.
I fear it will be like the Russians and Japanese at Tsushima (1904). The Chinese navy is now bigger than ours and it's a LOT NEWER.
The American Century is being CHALLENGED. Right now.
Ukraine is part of that.
RIGHT?!!