If this country, America, wants to be admired again and thought of as a Good & Great Power we must act NOW. Lolly-gagging and hand wringing or foot dragging is of NO Help either to us in this country or Ukraine.
We need Ukraine to succeed! If we want a stable world- we must work at it & support the Effort. Ukraine needs us to step up and deliver everything we can to defeat the brutal, illegal, unwarranted aggression of Putin and his government. To do anything less is giving a wink & a nod to more aggression & brutality.
In my opinion, Netanyahu is practicing genocide in Gaza and Putin is systematically destroying the Ukrainian people like Hitler & Stalin both tried. Genocide is Genocide no matter where and no matter by who. I have a foot in both Ukrainian and Jewish populations - and WRONG IS WRONG. Period.
Throwing up our hands and acting foolishly is Not the way a Good, Great or Decent country acts when our friends are in trouble.
Lend-lease is a perfect solution. The problem is the lead feet of the GQP. I do not want my son and son-in-law fighting like their great-great uncles did in the 1940s.
I agree that Lend Lease is a great program to get things done, and perhaps if enough people write to Biden he will look to go ahead with supplying Ukraine without the Congressional bill being passed. It might take the wind out of the sales of those who oppose it. I have male cousins who are based in Germany in the US military. While I do not want my 19-year-old daughter fighting, she has not been happy that I have said I think the USA and Germany (our 2 countries) should use a model where every gender gets military training at 18 or 19 like they have in a couple of Scandinavian countries and now Denmark is introducing.
My understanding of Finland is that they have all of their male population get basic training, and then they have regular briefer sessions as reservists to keep them current until they are 50. It is a knowledge base that allows them to be called up in times of war with basic training already underway. It helped them fight off the Russians in WWII using this model.
In many of these countries there is an alternative service. So, that is something the USA could look at too. It just seems like the world is in a time of war. Germany is considering changing back to conscription like when my husband was growing up. He did his military service and it helps him to think more complexly about what is going on with militaries.
I have a friend who did military service in Germany even though he was the 3 son in a farm family and only the first 2 needed to go by German law. Having a well prepared nation can be a deterrent to being attacked.
I’m seriously frustrated why any American with a high-school education doesn’t understand the urgency here. If russia subsumes Ukraine, then eastern Europe follows. Then western Europe. Then the russian alliance of russia, china, north korea and iran go for us. The ostriches with their collective heads in the sand think putin is a reasonable negotiator. As if! I’m not an expert but I’d be surprised if he’s ever stuck to a single agreement or treaty. We cannot assume he thinks the same as a respectful democratic leader would.
As usual, I found a lot of what you are saying to be realistic and "solution oriented". Your training, and my response to it, shows. However, and this is my biggest critique of your work, your FOCUS is extremely "tight".
You are heavily invested in the Ukrainian cause. I agree that it a worthy cause and, one which we AS A NATION should consider as a "debt of honor". WE convinced the Ukrainian's to give up their Nukes in part by guaranteeing their security against Russian aggression.
This would be a VERY different scenario if the Ukrainians still had a nuclear strike capacity.
That being said, you NEED to expand your scope. This is NOT the ONLY theater in this war. In many ways it is only a "sideshow".
You and most analysts still have produced NO convincing reason WHY Putin decided to take this highly EXISTENTIAL risk for "no reason" that anyone can discern. How can you "see" the enemies strategy if you cannot see their objectives?
You need to expand your scope and consider the "bigger" picture. This is not happening in a vacuum and there are factors you aren't accounting for. You would get a lot from reading my analysis. Particularly these pieces.
On Politics : War by other Means — 03 March 1, 2022
We are having a Sarajevo moment. In Ukraine, we may be seeing the first war of the “Climate Crisis”.
I think we are about to have a string of “multifocal production failure” years. I believe Putin and Xi think so as well. They are acting as if they do.
Before Ukraine Invasion, Russia and China Cemented Economic Ties
Six days before the military campaign began, Russia announced a years long deal to sell 100 million tons of coal to China, a contract worth more than $20 billion. Just hours before Russia began bombing Ukraine, China agreed to buy Russian wheat despite concerns about plant diseases.
China is again drawing close to Russia. This time as the dominant power in the relationship.
As the United States and the European Union have become wary of China, Beijing’s leaders have decided that their best geopolitical prospects lie in marrying their vast industrial might with Russia’s formidable natural resources.
Including wheat from the fields of Ukraine.
On Politics, War by Other Means — 04 April 12, 2022
Putin’s Strategy is coming into view. If you weren’t clear on it, World War III has started.
Putin botched the opening strike on Ukraine. With that, went his one chance for a quick war. It’s going to be a grinding war of attrition now, but he thinks he can win it. He thinks it’s worth it.
The chart above tells you why.
There’s an old saying that amateurs talk about tactics, dilettantes discuss strategy, professionals study logistics. In a world where the "open market" grain supply in 2020 was 157.3m tonnes, Russia now controls 55.6m tonnes. About one third.
Russia just became a food superpower.
“So what”, you say. “Putin is losing”.
Really?
He reminded everyone that Russia is still a nuclear power. He made it very clear he would use them if other countries attempted to intervene directly. Guess what? No one was willing to cross that line and call his bluff.
No other powers are going to intervene in Ukraine. Putin kept everyone else out of the conflict.
That means it’s just Russia versus Ukraine.
Russia will win that war.
“You’re crazy”, you say. That makes no sense. The Russians are losing. Their troops are crap. The Ukrainians are fighting for their homes. Everyone is giving them weapons. Russia has been cut off from world trade. It’s economy is going to shrivel up and collapse. Putin’s days are numbered.
I don’t think so.
What I see, when I look at the board, is that there are about to be about 100–200 million climate refugees pouring out of Africa and the Middle East.
Famines are going to start being felt in many of these countries by the end of this Summer.
Starving people are going to be on the move soon and many of them are going to head for Europe. If 100 million starving “Climate Refugees” start pouring into Europe this fall how concerned do you think the rest of Europe is going to be about Ukraine?
Are you naïve enough to believe that Putin didn’t know this was going to happen when he invaded Ukraine? He’s counting on millions of starving climate refugees flooding into Europe. That’s part of his strategy.
Those starving people are Putin’s flank attack on Europe. That’s how ruthless Putin is.
No one can intervene in Ukraine, so as long as he wants to feed Russian troops into the meat grinder that war will grind on. He might not be able to “win” right now but he can prevent Ukraine from functioning as a country.
He can keep their factories from producing anything.
He can keep their fields empty, and prevent them from harvesting crops.
He can murder their civilian population without consideration of consequence.
He can make Ukraine completely dependent on foreign support.
Because, he knows that an army of starving people is going to make that foreign support go away and leave the Ukrainians twisting in the wind.
He just has to keep the war going for the rest of the year.
So no, I don’t think Putin is losing. I think WW III has started. Putin knows it, Xi knows it. What’s going on in Ukraine isn’t just about Ukraine. It’s about China becoming the global superpower. We might lose without a shot being fired because we seem to be clueless.
“The greatest victory is that which requires no battle.”
-Sun Tzu
On Politics, War by Other Means — 05 April 17, 2022
If you suggest that the war in Ukraine is related to Climate Change, people tell you Putin doesn’t care about “Climate Change”.
People are IDIOTS.
You can show them a map, making clear what “Global Warming” means in the physical world.
You can tell them that the Arctic is warming faster than the rest of the planet.
The Arctic is warming four times faster than the rest of the world : An important climatic indicator has been misreported by a factor of two
“When something is changing as quickly as the climate, numbers can get old and outdated quickly,” he says. “Before you realize it, you’re misinforming people by a factor of two.”
You can list some of the ways Global Warming is affecting Russia.
Wildfires in Siberia.
Melting Permafrost. FYI - Permafrost covers 65% of Russia’s landmass, Russia is MELTING fast.
Permafrost Methane Release.
Flooding.
Arctic Coastline.
Ice Free Arctic Ocean.
You can do all of that, and people will still tell you that Putin doesn’t care about Climate Change.
Newsflash —
Just because you don’t care about Climate Change, or don’t believe in it. Doesn’t mean everyone else is as willfully blind and as stupid as you.
Putin is probably one of the best informed leaders in the world about Global Warming and Climate Change.
The “Climate Crisis” we all feared is here. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is the “tell” that the crisis has already started. By this time next year several hundred million people worldwide will be starving and on the move.
The “End Game” has started.
The Crisis Report - 14
Understanding WWIII, what’s in it for China? China and the US are moving towards a showdown, why?
In a word, “geoengineering”.
Because we are going to try geoengineering the Earth’s climate. Otherwise, too many people will die too quickly and COLLAPSE happens.
We know exactly how to Geoengineer the Climate.
The question is “who is going to be in charge?”.
That’s what this war is about. Control over the geoengineering project. Being in charge of that.
For Xi, that’s worth going to war over. Particularly if having it in US hands means the next Trumpublican President can weaponize it.
We are fighting over control of the global thermostat. That’s what WWIII is currently about.
If you are having trouble visualizing what the consequences of this project are likely to be. You might want to read this book.
‘Under A White Sky’ by Elizabeth Kolbert 2021
This is a good book. She makes clear how far we already are from a world of undisturbed, balanced nature. Spoiler alert, there is none.
Then she delves into how far we are going to have to go in finding a new balance for the planet’s future. One that still includes us.
The “White Sky” is what living with that level of reflective particulates is going to be like. No more blue skies, for the rest of your life.
Because that’s what it’s going to take.
The rest are here on Substack. My thesis is that Russia and China are allies in a global campaign to replace America as the "reigning superpower". They could win because we are crippled by our internal "Cold Civil War" and our stupidity about the Climate System.
One final thought. I was NAVY, NROTC at UC Berkeley. When I look at the board and consider that the loss of Taiwan is a 'sudden death' scenario for the US. I tend to think of the Russo-Japanese War and the battle of Tsushima Strait.
Things are moving in the US/China War. I have been thinking about The Battle of Tsushima (Japanese: 対馬沖海戦, Tsushima oki Kaisen, Russian: Цусимское сражение, Tsusimskoye srazheniye), also known as the Battle of Tsushima Strait and the Naval Battle of Sea of Japan (Japanese: 日本海海戦, Nihonkai-Kaisen) a lot lately.
The US MUST defend Taiwan, we have no choice. The fastest way for the Chinese to defeat us would be to get a lot of our fleet together and then destroy it. The Battle of Trafalgar (21 October 1805) established British naval supremacy for more than 100 years.
It was the end of France as the dominant world power. It made the 19th century the Pax Britannica.
Major naval defeats can do that.
I fear we are being "herded" into a reprise of that battle. As the Russians.
Sigh, are you familiar with Azimov's Foundation Trilogy?
There is a HUGE inertia/tide in the flow of events now that may be carrying us past the point of course correction. Also, one has to consider the difference in one's allegiance to one's country versus one's allegiance to humanity in general. What is BEST for the US in this case may not be what is best for the rest of the world.
The Climate Crisis is here, NOW.
If you read my latest paper (The Crisis Report 65 : Why Is the Sea So Hot? Let me explain it to you. Let me walk you through it.) it is OVERWHELMING CLEAR that billions are about to starve in the coming decades. We FUCKED UP and the bill for that is about to come due.
So, in a "perfect world" of rational actors negotiating in a clean information space (all knowledge shared, no hidden agendas) what I would hope for would be something like this.
I do not think Putin was Xi's first choice as an ally. China would "I think" prefer to be allied to us instead of him. But, they want an alliance of equals and an understanding that we, "while a senior power" are also the "fading power". Much the way that power shifted from England to the US in the early 20th. (See Kennedy's "Rise and Fall of the Great Powers").
This is an unpalatable reality for Americans but it is not an unreasonable reality. The "working age" population of China is DOUBLE the ENTIRE US population. In what "moral universe" can we argue that our "right" to rule is more valid than theirs?
Particularly now that their Navy is bigger than ours and they DWARF our industrial capacity.
Also, let us not forget the SINS of the 20th and the blatant racism that infected so much of our treatment of the rest if the world. Our hands are not clean and our intentions have rarely been pure. The Global 80% "know us" and many of them have very mixed feelings about us.
We probably have a LOT fewer friends than we think globally. The Kissinger Era of "real politic" has corroded the world's understanding of America. Most "accept" our dominance for the stability it has brought. NO ONE, "loves" Americans anymore. Even if our "ideals" are still appealing.
All of that being said, we need to reach an understanding with China. We could have had it in 2021 when they met with the Biden Administration. Their signaling was clear, it's what they wanted. Biden, however, needed to LOOK STRONG in the wake of the coup attempt and rebuffed them.
That's when Xi decided to "ally" with Putin.
Signals of Realignment 2021
The Strategic Implications of the China-Russia Lunar Base Cooperation Agreement 03/21
Unless you really think this meeting and treaty was actually about a nonexistent hypothetical moonbase, something happened there. Putin and Xi made a deal.
China gets ready
China hoards over half the world’s grain, pushing up global prices 12/21
China is maintaining its food stockpiles at a “historically high level,” says the head of grain reserves at the National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration. “However, there is no problem whatsoever about the supply of food.”
China’s stockpile of wheat accounts for about half of the world’s supply, according to the US Department of Agriculture. 02/22
As China imports record levels of grain every year, an oft-repeated vow by President Xi Jinping is given greater impetus: “The Chinese people’s rice bowl must be firmly held in their own hands.” 03/22
China knew in advance
China asked Russia to delay Ukraine invasion until after Olympics -NYT 03/22 Reuters
China asked Russia to delay Ukraine invasion until after Olympics, Western intel shows 03/22 CNN
China Asked Russia to Delay Ukraine War Until After Olympics, U.S. Officials Say 03/22 NYT
They made last minute agreements with Russia
Before Ukraine Invasion, Russia and China Cemented Economic Ties
Six days before the military campaign began, Russia announced a years long deal to sell 100 million tons of coal to China, a contract worth more than $20 billion. Just hours before Russia began bombing Ukraine, China agreed to buy Russian wheat despite concerns about plant diseases.
Russia and China reach agreement on wheat imports.
The effects of the Ukraine invasion on global grain prices will partly hinge on what China decides to do, the analysts said. China imports massive amounts of corn, barley and sorghum for animal feed from world markets. It could choose to buy those commodities, as well as wheat, from Russia instead of other countries. In such a situation, the impact of sanctions on global grain markets would be relatively small, they said.
On Thursday, China began approving imports of Russian wheat that had long been blocked because of Beijing’s concerns over fungus and other contaminants. The countries announced that China would begin importing Russian wheat and barley on Feb. 8, shortly after President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia visited China ahead of the Beijing Olympics.
China has emerged as one of Russia’s strongest potential trade partners in the event of further sanctions from the West.
They have not sanctioned Russia
Chinese leaders have refused to condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine, though they have also called for respecting national sovereignty.
Conclusion
The Ukraine invasion is a coordinated strike. Russia and China believe a “Climate Crisis” is unfolding. Their models probably indicate hundreds of millions are going to die.
To Putin and Xi, those people are already dead. As sure as if you put a bullet in them. They just don’t know it yet. Putin has no problem liquidating 20–30 million Ukrainians. Hundreds of millions are about to die.
Seizing Ukraine is about logistics.
It provides a secure source of wheat for China that doesn’t need shipment by sea. Which avoids US naval control of the oceans.
It provides Russia with a market for Ag products, energy products, and other raw materials. It gets access to everything China makes. Which, since China makes everything, makes sanctions sorta meaningless.
Most importantly, it makes them partners in surviving the crisis. Putin is betting Russia’s future on an alliance with China in the coming years.
Despite ALL of that, I still think China and Xi would "make peace" with the US if he could. He seems to understand better than anyone else what's happening and actually FEEL grief over it. His asking Putin to delay the Ukraine Invasion for the Winter Olympics was a revealing glimpse into the man's "internal life". Xi, is still a "human being", Putin is a sociopathic monster driven by HATE for the US and a desire to destroy the nation that destroyed his country.
However, Putin is Xi's dog and Xi's grip on the leash seems tight. Xi can END this if we give him what he wants.
Given the state of the board I think we should.
Taiwan makes over 90% of the computer chips in the ENTIRE WORLD. It is LITERALLY the "choke point" of the modern world. A war game and study by a think tank (Center for a New American Security) in January of 2022 highlighted how dependent the world is on Taiwan’s semiconductor foundries. The study concluded that,
The United States is more dependent on Taiwan’s high-end microchips than it was on Middle Eastern oil in decades past.
If we lose Taiwan, we are crippled as a superpower.
Now do you understand why Pelosi went to Taiwan. Why Biden says we will defend Taiwan, “no matter what the cost”.
We sent a 100%, no bullshit, absolutely clear message to China. “Cross this line and this will become a shooting war.” China considered our message and decided it didn’t want to go there right now.
They backed off and we passed a 52 Billion dollar CHIPS ACT to boost US manufacturing of computer chips from 2% of our needs to 10% of demand over the next 5–10 years. Which is the BARE Minimum necessary for us to resupply our "smart weapons".
Which sounds great right? Unless you know that in 2023 Climate Disasters cost the US $98 billion in a SINGLE YEAR.
We are being "bled dry" in Ukraine and in supporting Israel. We are engaged in a Cold Civil War which is probably going to result in a VERY TENSE election season with an unpredictable outcome. Our stocks are depleted and we are stretched thin across a world that is becoming increasingly fragile as the Climate Crisis intensifies.
It's time to accept reality and find a political solution that allows us to make a "managed retreat". If we try to tough this out I fear we are sailing into a crushing "game changing" defeat (see battle of Adrianople as an example).
I appreciate the effort in this column to offset the defeatist assessments that are used to justify US inaction (the “no aid if no plan” chorus). We obviously can and should be doing much more. Ukraine can win and push russia back into its borders and show the world that democracies can stand together and repulse a savage attack on the foundations of civilization.
In fact, the pathway to accomplishing this is well described elsewhere and depends only on relatively modest but technologically focused assistance to Ukraine. Though NATO troops in Ukraine, as proposed by President Macron of France, would undoubtedly change battlefield dynamics dramatically, this is not necessary (at this point) for a decisive Ukrainian victory.
This is not just a fight for Ukraine (though it is of existential importance for Ukraine), it’s a fight for the soul of the West. It is THAT important. It’s not just that the eastern edge of NATO will be threatened if Putin prevails in Ukraine, it’s that a failure to support Ukraine will reflect the political and moral failure of NATO. The collapse of this alliance will usher in an era of instability, and given advances in military technology, frankly barbarity, the likes of which the world has never seen. The EU is a great force for good but it will not have the military cohesion or combat power to replace NATO in the foreseeable future. Without the US, EU spending on defense will have to increase astronomically to forge a credible deterrent to russia and other predatory nations. The truth is that there frankly isn’t time regardless of whether there is the political will to do this (which is doubtful to say the least, given internal divisions and active russian influence campaigns).
Republicans in Congress need to understand the stakes. I understand that many constituents support Trump’s position, and Members feel as though they have to toe the line or be ostracized. It may come to that, but I personally would rather lose my job and even political career than make a morally bankrupt decision that contributes to plunging the world into chaos and carnage. That is the future that await us. Speaker Johnson said that his guidance in life comes from the Bible. Christ led by example and showed us that sometimes we have to sacrifice it all to do the right thing. It’s time.
Ukraine MATTERS Greatly!
If this country, America, wants to be admired again and thought of as a Good & Great Power we must act NOW. Lolly-gagging and hand wringing or foot dragging is of NO Help either to us in this country or Ukraine.
We need Ukraine to succeed! If we want a stable world- we must work at it & support the Effort. Ukraine needs us to step up and deliver everything we can to defeat the brutal, illegal, unwarranted aggression of Putin and his government. To do anything less is giving a wink & a nod to more aggression & brutality.
In my opinion, Netanyahu is practicing genocide in Gaza and Putin is systematically destroying the Ukrainian people like Hitler & Stalin both tried. Genocide is Genocide no matter where and no matter by who. I have a foot in both Ukrainian and Jewish populations - and WRONG IS WRONG. Period.
Throwing up our hands and acting foolishly is Not the way a Good, Great or Decent country acts when our friends are in trouble.
You have been pushing for lend lease since the beginning of the conflict. I hope someone is listening now.
Lend-lease is a perfect solution. The problem is the lead feet of the GQP. I do not want my son and son-in-law fighting like their great-great uncles did in the 1940s.
I agree that Lend Lease is a great program to get things done, and perhaps if enough people write to Biden he will look to go ahead with supplying Ukraine without the Congressional bill being passed. It might take the wind out of the sales of those who oppose it. I have male cousins who are based in Germany in the US military. While I do not want my 19-year-old daughter fighting, she has not been happy that I have said I think the USA and Germany (our 2 countries) should use a model where every gender gets military training at 18 or 19 like they have in a couple of Scandinavian countries and now Denmark is introducing.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/3/14/denmark-to-conscript-women-into-armed-forces-for-first-time
My understanding of Finland is that they have all of their male population get basic training, and then they have regular briefer sessions as reservists to keep them current until they are 50. It is a knowledge base that allows them to be called up in times of war with basic training already underway. It helped them fight off the Russians in WWII using this model.
https://puolustusvoimat.fi/en/finnish-conscription-system
My husband's cousin in Switzerland also has had conscription and reserve training updates.
https://www.ch.ch/en/safety-and-justice/military-service-and-civilian-service/military-service/#further-information
Baltic countries have conscription of only males, but perhaps they will consider conscripting all genders as well.
https://mil.ee/en/compulsory-military-service/#:~:text=The%20Constitution%20of%20the%20Republic,Defence%20Forces%20to%20the%20conscript.
https://kariuomene.lt/en/who-we-are/military-service/23649
In many of these countries there is an alternative service. So, that is something the USA could look at too. It just seems like the world is in a time of war. Germany is considering changing back to conscription like when my husband was growing up. He did his military service and it helps him to think more complexly about what is going on with militaries.
https://www.euractiv.com/section/defence-and-security/news/germany-mulls-reintroducing-conscription/
I have a friend who did military service in Germany even though he was the 3 son in a farm family and only the first 2 needed to go by German law. Having a well prepared nation can be a deterrent to being attacked.
I’m seriously frustrated why any American with a high-school education doesn’t understand the urgency here. If russia subsumes Ukraine, then eastern Europe follows. Then western Europe. Then the russian alliance of russia, china, north korea and iran go for us. The ostriches with their collective heads in the sand think putin is a reasonable negotiator. As if! I’m not an expert but I’d be surprised if he’s ever stuck to a single agreement or treaty. We cannot assume he thinks the same as a respectful democratic leader would.
Why hasn't Biden done all he can? He clearly supports Ukraine. Is he unaware or is there some other reason?
Look at the republicans blocking it
As usual, I found a lot of what you are saying to be realistic and "solution oriented". Your training, and my response to it, shows. However, and this is my biggest critique of your work, your FOCUS is extremely "tight".
You are heavily invested in the Ukrainian cause. I agree that it a worthy cause and, one which we AS A NATION should consider as a "debt of honor". WE convinced the Ukrainian's to give up their Nukes in part by guaranteeing their security against Russian aggression.
This would be a VERY different scenario if the Ukrainians still had a nuclear strike capacity.
That being said, you NEED to expand your scope. This is NOT the ONLY theater in this war. In many ways it is only a "sideshow".
You and most analysts still have produced NO convincing reason WHY Putin decided to take this highly EXISTENTIAL risk for "no reason" that anyone can discern. How can you "see" the enemies strategy if you cannot see their objectives?
You need to expand your scope and consider the "bigger" picture. This is not happening in a vacuum and there are factors you aren't accounting for. You would get a lot from reading my analysis. Particularly these pieces.
On Politics : War by other Means — 03 March 1, 2022
We are having a Sarajevo moment. In Ukraine, we may be seeing the first war of the “Climate Crisis”.
I think we are about to have a string of “multifocal production failure” years. I believe Putin and Xi think so as well. They are acting as if they do.
Before Ukraine Invasion, Russia and China Cemented Economic Ties
Six days before the military campaign began, Russia announced a years long deal to sell 100 million tons of coal to China, a contract worth more than $20 billion. Just hours before Russia began bombing Ukraine, China agreed to buy Russian wheat despite concerns about plant diseases.
China is again drawing close to Russia. This time as the dominant power in the relationship.
As the United States and the European Union have become wary of China, Beijing’s leaders have decided that their best geopolitical prospects lie in marrying their vast industrial might with Russia’s formidable natural resources.
Including wheat from the fields of Ukraine.
On Politics, War by Other Means — 04 April 12, 2022
Putin’s Strategy is coming into view. If you weren’t clear on it, World War III has started.
Putin botched the opening strike on Ukraine. With that, went his one chance for a quick war. It’s going to be a grinding war of attrition now, but he thinks he can win it. He thinks it’s worth it.
The chart above tells you why.
There’s an old saying that amateurs talk about tactics, dilettantes discuss strategy, professionals study logistics. In a world where the "open market" grain supply in 2020 was 157.3m tonnes, Russia now controls 55.6m tonnes. About one third.
Russia just became a food superpower.
“So what”, you say. “Putin is losing”.
Really?
He reminded everyone that Russia is still a nuclear power. He made it very clear he would use them if other countries attempted to intervene directly. Guess what? No one was willing to cross that line and call his bluff.
No other powers are going to intervene in Ukraine. Putin kept everyone else out of the conflict.
That means it’s just Russia versus Ukraine.
Russia will win that war.
“You’re crazy”, you say. That makes no sense. The Russians are losing. Their troops are crap. The Ukrainians are fighting for their homes. Everyone is giving them weapons. Russia has been cut off from world trade. It’s economy is going to shrivel up and collapse. Putin’s days are numbered.
I don’t think so.
What I see, when I look at the board, is that there are about to be about 100–200 million climate refugees pouring out of Africa and the Middle East.
Famines are going to start being felt in many of these countries by the end of this Summer.
Starving people are going to be on the move soon and many of them are going to head for Europe. If 100 million starving “Climate Refugees” start pouring into Europe this fall how concerned do you think the rest of Europe is going to be about Ukraine?
Are you naïve enough to believe that Putin didn’t know this was going to happen when he invaded Ukraine? He’s counting on millions of starving climate refugees flooding into Europe. That’s part of his strategy.
Those starving people are Putin’s flank attack on Europe. That’s how ruthless Putin is.
No one can intervene in Ukraine, so as long as he wants to feed Russian troops into the meat grinder that war will grind on. He might not be able to “win” right now but he can prevent Ukraine from functioning as a country.
He can keep their factories from producing anything.
He can keep their fields empty, and prevent them from harvesting crops.
He can murder their civilian population without consideration of consequence.
He can make Ukraine completely dependent on foreign support.
Because, he knows that an army of starving people is going to make that foreign support go away and leave the Ukrainians twisting in the wind.
He just has to keep the war going for the rest of the year.
So no, I don’t think Putin is losing. I think WW III has started. Putin knows it, Xi knows it. What’s going on in Ukraine isn’t just about Ukraine. It’s about China becoming the global superpower. We might lose without a shot being fired because we seem to be clueless.
“The greatest victory is that which requires no battle.”
-Sun Tzu
On Politics, War by Other Means — 05 April 17, 2022
If you suggest that the war in Ukraine is related to Climate Change, people tell you Putin doesn’t care about “Climate Change”.
People are IDIOTS.
You can show them a map, making clear what “Global Warming” means in the physical world.
You can tell them that the Arctic is warming faster than the rest of the planet.
The Arctic is warming four times faster than the rest of the world : An important climatic indicator has been misreported by a factor of two
“When something is changing as quickly as the climate, numbers can get old and outdated quickly,” he says. “Before you realize it, you’re misinforming people by a factor of two.”
You can list some of the ways Global Warming is affecting Russia.
Wildfires in Siberia.
Melting Permafrost. FYI - Permafrost covers 65% of Russia’s landmass, Russia is MELTING fast.
Permafrost Methane Release.
Flooding.
Arctic Coastline.
Ice Free Arctic Ocean.
You can do all of that, and people will still tell you that Putin doesn’t care about Climate Change.
Newsflash —
Just because you don’t care about Climate Change, or don’t believe in it. Doesn’t mean everyone else is as willfully blind and as stupid as you.
Putin is probably one of the best informed leaders in the world about Global Warming and Climate Change.
The “Climate Crisis” we all feared is here. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is the “tell” that the crisis has already started. By this time next year several hundred million people worldwide will be starving and on the move.
The “End Game” has started.
The Crisis Report - 14
Understanding WWIII, what’s in it for China? China and the US are moving towards a showdown, why?
In a word, “geoengineering”.
Because we are going to try geoengineering the Earth’s climate. Otherwise, too many people will die too quickly and COLLAPSE happens.
We know exactly how to Geoengineer the Climate.
The question is “who is going to be in charge?”.
That’s what this war is about. Control over the geoengineering project. Being in charge of that.
For Xi, that’s worth going to war over. Particularly if having it in US hands means the next Trumpublican President can weaponize it.
We are fighting over control of the global thermostat. That’s what WWIII is currently about.
If you are having trouble visualizing what the consequences of this project are likely to be. You might want to read this book.
‘Under A White Sky’ by Elizabeth Kolbert 2021
This is a good book. She makes clear how far we already are from a world of undisturbed, balanced nature. Spoiler alert, there is none.
Then she delves into how far we are going to have to go in finding a new balance for the planet’s future. One that still includes us.
The “White Sky” is what living with that level of reflective particulates is going to be like. No more blue skies, for the rest of your life.
Because that’s what it’s going to take.
The rest are here on Substack. My thesis is that Russia and China are allies in a global campaign to replace America as the "reigning superpower". They could win because we are crippled by our internal "Cold Civil War" and our stupidity about the Climate System.
One final thought. I was NAVY, NROTC at UC Berkeley. When I look at the board and consider that the loss of Taiwan is a 'sudden death' scenario for the US. I tend to think of the Russo-Japanese War and the battle of Tsushima Strait.
Things are moving in the US/China War. I have been thinking about The Battle of Tsushima (Japanese: 対馬沖海戦, Tsushima oki Kaisen, Russian: Цусимское сражение, Tsusimskoye srazheniye), also known as the Battle of Tsushima Strait and the Naval Battle of Sea of Japan (Japanese: 日本海海戦, Nihonkai-Kaisen) a lot lately.
The US MUST defend Taiwan, we have no choice. The fastest way for the Chinese to defeat us would be to get a lot of our fleet together and then destroy it. The Battle of Trafalgar (21 October 1805) established British naval supremacy for more than 100 years.
It was the end of France as the dominant world power. It made the 19th century the Pax Britannica.
Major naval defeats can do that.
I fear we are being "herded" into a reprise of that battle. As the Russians.
So do you see any way out?
Sigh, are you familiar with Azimov's Foundation Trilogy?
There is a HUGE inertia/tide in the flow of events now that may be carrying us past the point of course correction. Also, one has to consider the difference in one's allegiance to one's country versus one's allegiance to humanity in general. What is BEST for the US in this case may not be what is best for the rest of the world.
The Climate Crisis is here, NOW.
If you read my latest paper (The Crisis Report 65 : Why Is the Sea So Hot? Let me explain it to you. Let me walk you through it.) it is OVERWHELMING CLEAR that billions are about to starve in the coming decades. We FUCKED UP and the bill for that is about to come due.
So, in a "perfect world" of rational actors negotiating in a clean information space (all knowledge shared, no hidden agendas) what I would hope for would be something like this.
I do not think Putin was Xi's first choice as an ally. China would "I think" prefer to be allied to us instead of him. But, they want an alliance of equals and an understanding that we, "while a senior power" are also the "fading power". Much the way that power shifted from England to the US in the early 20th. (See Kennedy's "Rise and Fall of the Great Powers").
This is an unpalatable reality for Americans but it is not an unreasonable reality. The "working age" population of China is DOUBLE the ENTIRE US population. In what "moral universe" can we argue that our "right" to rule is more valid than theirs?
Particularly now that their Navy is bigger than ours and they DWARF our industrial capacity.
Also, let us not forget the SINS of the 20th and the blatant racism that infected so much of our treatment of the rest if the world. Our hands are not clean and our intentions have rarely been pure. The Global 80% "know us" and many of them have very mixed feelings about us.
We probably have a LOT fewer friends than we think globally. The Kissinger Era of "real politic" has corroded the world's understanding of America. Most "accept" our dominance for the stability it has brought. NO ONE, "loves" Americans anymore. Even if our "ideals" are still appealing.
All of that being said, we need to reach an understanding with China. We could have had it in 2021 when they met with the Biden Administration. Their signaling was clear, it's what they wanted. Biden, however, needed to LOOK STRONG in the wake of the coup attempt and rebuffed them.
That's when Xi decided to "ally" with Putin.
Signals of Realignment 2021
The Strategic Implications of the China-Russia Lunar Base Cooperation Agreement 03/21
Unless you really think this meeting and treaty was actually about a nonexistent hypothetical moonbase, something happened there. Putin and Xi made a deal.
China gets ready
China hoards over half the world’s grain, pushing up global prices 12/21
China is maintaining its food stockpiles at a “historically high level,” says the head of grain reserves at the National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration. “However, there is no problem whatsoever about the supply of food.”
China’s stockpile of wheat accounts for about half of the world’s supply, according to the US Department of Agriculture. 02/22
As China imports record levels of grain every year, an oft-repeated vow by President Xi Jinping is given greater impetus: “The Chinese people’s rice bowl must be firmly held in their own hands.” 03/22
China knew in advance
China asked Russia to delay Ukraine invasion until after Olympics -NYT 03/22 Reuters
China asked Russia to delay Ukraine invasion until after Olympics, Western intel shows 03/22 CNN
China Asked Russia to Delay Ukraine War Until After Olympics, U.S. Officials Say 03/22 NYT
They made last minute agreements with Russia
Before Ukraine Invasion, Russia and China Cemented Economic Ties
Six days before the military campaign began, Russia announced a years long deal to sell 100 million tons of coal to China, a contract worth more than $20 billion. Just hours before Russia began bombing Ukraine, China agreed to buy Russian wheat despite concerns about plant diseases.
Russia and China reach agreement on wheat imports.
The effects of the Ukraine invasion on global grain prices will partly hinge on what China decides to do, the analysts said. China imports massive amounts of corn, barley and sorghum for animal feed from world markets. It could choose to buy those commodities, as well as wheat, from Russia instead of other countries. In such a situation, the impact of sanctions on global grain markets would be relatively small, they said.
On Thursday, China began approving imports of Russian wheat that had long been blocked because of Beijing’s concerns over fungus and other contaminants. The countries announced that China would begin importing Russian wheat and barley on Feb. 8, shortly after President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia visited China ahead of the Beijing Olympics.
China has emerged as one of Russia’s strongest potential trade partners in the event of further sanctions from the West.
They have not sanctioned Russia
Chinese leaders have refused to condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine, though they have also called for respecting national sovereignty.
Conclusion
The Ukraine invasion is a coordinated strike. Russia and China believe a “Climate Crisis” is unfolding. Their models probably indicate hundreds of millions are going to die.
To Putin and Xi, those people are already dead. As sure as if you put a bullet in them. They just don’t know it yet. Putin has no problem liquidating 20–30 million Ukrainians. Hundreds of millions are about to die.
Seizing Ukraine is about logistics.
It provides a secure source of wheat for China that doesn’t need shipment by sea. Which avoids US naval control of the oceans.
It provides Russia with a market for Ag products, energy products, and other raw materials. It gets access to everything China makes. Which, since China makes everything, makes sanctions sorta meaningless.
Most importantly, it makes them partners in surviving the crisis. Putin is betting Russia’s future on an alliance with China in the coming years.
Despite ALL of that, I still think China and Xi would "make peace" with the US if he could. He seems to understand better than anyone else what's happening and actually FEEL grief over it. His asking Putin to delay the Ukraine Invasion for the Winter Olympics was a revealing glimpse into the man's "internal life". Xi, is still a "human being", Putin is a sociopathic monster driven by HATE for the US and a desire to destroy the nation that destroyed his country.
However, Putin is Xi's dog and Xi's grip on the leash seems tight. Xi can END this if we give him what he wants.
Given the state of the board I think we should.
Taiwan makes over 90% of the computer chips in the ENTIRE WORLD. It is LITERALLY the "choke point" of the modern world. A war game and study by a think tank (Center for a New American Security) in January of 2022 highlighted how dependent the world is on Taiwan’s semiconductor foundries. The study concluded that,
The United States is more dependent on Taiwan’s high-end microchips than it was on Middle Eastern oil in decades past.
If we lose Taiwan, we are crippled as a superpower.
Now do you understand why Pelosi went to Taiwan. Why Biden says we will defend Taiwan, “no matter what the cost”.
We sent a 100%, no bullshit, absolutely clear message to China. “Cross this line and this will become a shooting war.” China considered our message and decided it didn’t want to go there right now.
They backed off and we passed a 52 Billion dollar CHIPS ACT to boost US manufacturing of computer chips from 2% of our needs to 10% of demand over the next 5–10 years. Which is the BARE Minimum necessary for us to resupply our "smart weapons".
Which sounds great right? Unless you know that in 2023 Climate Disasters cost the US $98 billion in a SINGLE YEAR.
We are being "bled dry" in Ukraine and in supporting Israel. We are engaged in a Cold Civil War which is probably going to result in a VERY TENSE election season with an unpredictable outcome. Our stocks are depleted and we are stretched thin across a world that is becoming increasingly fragile as the Climate Crisis intensifies.
It's time to accept reality and find a political solution that allows us to make a "managed retreat". If we try to tough this out I fear we are sailing into a crushing "game changing" defeat (see battle of Adrianople as an example).
👏👏👏👏👏
I appreciate the effort in this column to offset the defeatist assessments that are used to justify US inaction (the “no aid if no plan” chorus). We obviously can and should be doing much more. Ukraine can win and push russia back into its borders and show the world that democracies can stand together and repulse a savage attack on the foundations of civilization.
In fact, the pathway to accomplishing this is well described elsewhere and depends only on relatively modest but technologically focused assistance to Ukraine. Though NATO troops in Ukraine, as proposed by President Macron of France, would undoubtedly change battlefield dynamics dramatically, this is not necessary (at this point) for a decisive Ukrainian victory.
This is not just a fight for Ukraine (though it is of existential importance for Ukraine), it’s a fight for the soul of the West. It is THAT important. It’s not just that the eastern edge of NATO will be threatened if Putin prevails in Ukraine, it’s that a failure to support Ukraine will reflect the political and moral failure of NATO. The collapse of this alliance will usher in an era of instability, and given advances in military technology, frankly barbarity, the likes of which the world has never seen. The EU is a great force for good but it will not have the military cohesion or combat power to replace NATO in the foreseeable future. Without the US, EU spending on defense will have to increase astronomically to forge a credible deterrent to russia and other predatory nations. The truth is that there frankly isn’t time regardless of whether there is the political will to do this (which is doubtful to say the least, given internal divisions and active russian influence campaigns).
Republicans in Congress need to understand the stakes. I understand that many constituents support Trump’s position, and Members feel as though they have to toe the line or be ostracized. It may come to that, but I personally would rather lose my job and even political career than make a morally bankrupt decision that contributes to plunging the world into chaos and carnage. That is the future that await us. Speaker Johnson said that his guidance in life comes from the Bible. Christ led by example and showed us that sometimes we have to sacrifice it all to do the right thing. It’s time.
BOLD DEMOCRATS are sending emails using your last name. Did you know this? Are they legitimate?