Trump’s Ukraine Pivot

A Painful, Predictable Lesson Learned Over Six Months

Earlier this week President Trump announced that the United States would expand its current portfolio of security aid to Ukraine. According to the initial description of this plan, the United States will increase the sale of arms to NATO members who will then transfer weapons and equipment to Ukraine. Patriot anti-air systems, a crucial part of Ukraine’s air defense network that have been in short supply, are reportedly among the types of equipment that will be included in this plan. This strategy implies that Ukraine’s inventory of equipment used to defend against Russian aggression will expand as previously allocated security aid will be combined with additional rounds of arms sales. Additionally, Trump announced that the Russian government has 50 days to end the war in Ukraine or else the United States will levy additional tariffs and sanctions.

I have always believed that it was in America’s best interest to support Ukraine against Russian aggression and that the United States should give Kyiv the tools it needs to achieve victory. My recent book The Folly of Realism: How the West Deceived Itself About Russia and Betrayed Ukraine, chronicles how six Republican and Democrat administrations attempted to accommodate and appease Russia, only to inadvertently embolden Moscow. Despite his unwillingness to learn and his tendency to repeat the mistakes of the past, perhaps it was inevitable that Trump would realize that Putin was playing him. Trump’s decision to expand the delivery of arms and equipment is the right choice - especially given Russia’s increased targeting of Ukrainian cities and civilian targets in recent weeks. However, I remain concerned that Trump’s pivot will take months to develop into anything resembling a coherent policy shift that supports Ukraine and puts pressure on Russia. Trump’s ability to see through Putin’s inevitable nuclear saber-rattling also remains a major open question.