Trump’s diesel deal is a short-lived PR stunt with no meaningful impact on diesel supplies or prices. Pursuing a substantial deal with our neighbor and close traditional ally Canada would have provided a far more meaningful solution to supply shortages. The diesel deal pursued by Trump runs against our current Russia sanctions regime, funds the Russian war effort, and lurches towards a full break with Ukraine. In total, Trump’s diesel deal has thrown into chaos relations with Europe and Ukraine.
After receiving pushback from Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, Trump stated that “it’s time for Ukraine to get a new president.” Musk joined in the president’s rhetoric and called for a new Ukrainian president. Next, the White House announced a truce between Ukraine and Russia covering refineries and energy infrastructure - only for neither side to acknowledge the existence of this agreement. Russia struck a Ukrainian power plant just hours after Trump’s supposed truce was announced.
This is a mess. The chaos of the Trump administration’s Russia-Ukraine policy only advances the interest of our enemies. However, beyond the bluster and spectacle of the diesel agreement over past 48 hours, the Trump administration has quietly handed a significant win to the Russians by failing to act on the arrest of Mikhail Zvinchuk, operator of the “Rybar” misinformation network, in Montenegro. Zvinchuk previously faced a $10 million bounty by the State Department for his role in election interference. A major player in Russia’s misinformation operations was arrested in a NATO country just days before the midterm elections - yet the Trump administration failed to take any meaningful actions before he was expelled and sent back to Russia. Alarmingly, a post from the Rybar network prior to Zvinchuk’s arrest suggests that America’s competitive Senate races may be targeted by misinformation operations in the coming midterms.