Security Briefing: July 2025

A Review of Global Events Across July

Dear readers,

I’m trying something new—I’m launching a monthly security review for paid subscribers.

My plan is to share insights and perspectives on significant events across the world and Why It Matters. My goal is to bring clarity to the instability around us. I would love to hear what you think. Join as a paid subscriber today and leave your feedback in the comments below.

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The United States and North America

Under ”the Big, Beautiful Bill,” the United States is expanding the budgets for ICE and DHS to historic highs. This plan will likely involve a surge in recruitment in the near future. During Donald Trump’s previous term, similar surges in ICE recruitment were followed by extensive reports of misconduct, profiling, and abuse of authority by recruits who might not have passed prior screening standards. This coming wave of recruitment will likely rely on similar criteria, possibly drawing individuals motivated by nativist political leanings.

Additionally, the Trump administration may lean on militias, bounty hunters, and other “gray area” paramilitaries to satisfy recruitment quotas or operate as auxiliaries alongside ICE agents. ICE could increasingly operate as a politicized enforcement body targeting domestic opponents. Such activity risks tensions with local law enforcement and the FBI, and may deter trafficking victims and vulnerable immigrants from seeking aid. In an election year, I can see Trump sending in ICE agents to create chaos and disrupt elections in targeted communities.

Extreme weather patterns remain a growing threat to U.S. national security. Defunding the National Weather Service has already contributed to preventable fatalities during the recent flooding in Texas. Reduced FEMA staffing compounds the risk as hurricane season approaches. The tsunami conditions in California generated by the aftershock of an earthquake in Russia disrupted shipping and logistics across the state, but this significant earthquake could have easily resulted in widespread flooding.

Why It Matters: Domestic security is being reshaped by the convergence of political polarization and climate disasters. ICE militarization risks eroding public trust in law enforcement, while weakening FEMA and the National Weather Service magnifies the human and economic costs of natural disasters.

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Europe, Ukraine, and Russia

President Trump has announced a major revision of his administration’s approach toward the Russia-Ukraine war. The U.S. will facilitate arms deliveries to Ukraine via European NATO members, who will purchase additional American weapons to back-fill their stocks. This plan could deepen commercial ties between the Ukrainian defense industry and U.S. and European suppliers. However, Trump’s tendency to reverse decisions and his insistence on continuous engagement with Vladimir Putin remains a significant risk to the viability of this policy.

Trump also announced a “50-day window” for Russia to approach a peace process or face new tariffs and sanctions. In response, Russia launched several attacks along the front, which have achieved little. Ukrainian forces, meanwhile, recaptured Kindrativka in Sumy Oblast, highlighting the faltering momentum of Russia’s operations amid Ukraine’s increasingly effective drone campaigns. And now Trump has reduced the 50-day negotiation window to 10-12 days threatening ambiguous action against Russia if Putin doesn’t agree to a ceasefire. Trump’s erratic behavior makes it difficult to predict the potential outcome of this approach. Perhaps the best-case scenario for American and Ukrainian interests is the simultaneous expansion of sanctions on Russia and increased arms sales to Ukraine.

The Hague NATO Summit marked a pivotal moment in European security, with member states agreeing to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP and to integrate direct Ukrainian support into that calculation. This is an unambiguously good development as Europe will now make major investments in its own defense. A trillion Euro investment in defense and security will also build capabilities to project security regionally and globally. This means that in the aftermath of Trump’s second term, Europe’s rejuvenated defense capabilities may provide a much-needed boost to democracies’ competition with the authoritarian world.

Europe also suffered record-breaking heatwaves, with temperatures exceeding 46°C in multiple countries. Excess deaths reached 2,300, reinforcing climate change as a profound security issue with implications for civil stability, migration, and infrastructure.

The U.S.–EU trade deal finalized in July avoided 30% tariffs in favor of a 15% compromise. While markets surged in response, European leaders criticized the deal’s imbalance. This reflects ongoing volatility in global economic relationships under the current administration.

Why It Matters: Europe faces simultaneous military and climate crises. Extreme heat will be one of several climate-related risks that European policymakers must plan around for the foreseeable future. Russia’s stalled offensive shows the limits of Moscow’s military power, but political instability continues to challenge NATO cohesion and the broader transatlantic alliance.