Russia Leadership Shakeup

Interesting reports from the State News Agency, TASS, of Russian Minister of Defense Shoigu moving to replace the long-time National Security Advisor Nikolai Patrushev. Lots of potential implications. Initial thoughts…

If Patrushev doesn’t become the Prime Minister, the only arguable promotion, he will retire. Although Patrushev is old, he has at times been considered an alternative or successor to Putin, especially in a crisis/ palace coup scenario. Patrushev is a dangerous hawk.

Sidelining Patrushev would be an effective way to both neutralize a potential Putin challenger/ alternative power center and moderate the extremely aggressive party of war faction that constantly advocates for ratcheting up conflict with the U.S. and the West.

The new MinDef Belousov, is a technocrat without Defense experience, but nevertheless a competent and trusted manager. He has no independent power base within the MoD and is thus completely reliant on Putin’s favor. This would be another move to insulate Putin.