Pax Trumpiana? I Think Not

PR Wins, Pressure, and Bombs for Thin Deals

The orders have gone out: find Trump some peace deals.

Trump’s well-known desire to win a Nobel Peace Prize remains unfulfilled. He claims he earned it with the Abraham Accords, but the Nobel Committee has disagreed. Now, in his second term, he has made clear that peace—anywhere, anyhow—is the goal. The administration is scouring the globe for quick wins and splashy announcements. While this could be a noble pursuit, in practice it often means postponing conflict, distorting peace, and leaving instability simmering beneath the surface. Carter earned a Nobel for Camp David; Obama received his for hope. Trump appears to want his for spectacle—whether delivered by the end of a bomb or through economic coercion. Let’s take stock of what he’s managed and what it means.

Iran–Israel: Peace at the Point of a Gun. The 12-day war between Israel and Iran ended with U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, setting Tehran’s weapons program back, maybe, several years. Iran has not declared the program terminated—at best, it is suspended. More likely, it is buried, awaiting another breakout opportunity. Without a real agreement, this is a ceasefire enforced by brute force, with the likelihood of periodic “maintenance strikes” to maintain deterrence. There’s no peace prize for dropping bombs, and Trump’s envoy Witkoff has yet to end the Israel–Hamas war or secure the release of all hostages.

Armenia–Azerbaijan: Branded Peace. In a White House ceremony, Armenia and Azerbaijan signed an agreement aimed at ending nearly 40 years of hostilities. At its center is the Trump Route of International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), a transit corridor through Armenia’s Syunik region connecting Azerbaijan to its exclave, Nakhichevan. Managed by an Armenian–American consortium, it avoids the most contentious issues—no land swaps, no sovereign corridors—in favor of bilateral agreements promising economic development. The Trump branding is designed to secure presidential investment in its success. It’s a positive step that eases what I’ve long thought to be one of the worlds most complex and vexing conflicts, but sustaining a peace will require long-term U.S. engagement—something this administration has demonstrated little competence in and even less desire for.

Rwanda–DRC: Africa’s Largest Conflict Paused. In June, Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo agreed to respect each other’s sovereignty and stop supporting armed groups. This could be one of the most substantive agreements the Trump administration has facilitated, given decades of bloodshed fueled by Rwandan-backed militias. Still, the deal’s durability depends more on regional dynamics and continued attention in an area Trump’s described as a “shit hole.” Trump could have taken this deal as a win, but true to form, Vice President Vance quickly politicized the moment, declaring that Black Lives Matter should thank Trump for saving more Black lives than any other U.S. president—undercutting the gravity of the achievement tainting the moment with bias and racism.

India–Pakistan: Delayed Intervention, Near Disaster. This spring, India and Pakistan exchanged air and missile strikes after a terrorist attack on Indian tourists by a Pakistan-based terror group linked to Pakistani intelligence. Initially, Trump and Vance dismissed the crisis. Only after India targeted a site tied to Pakistan’s nuclear command did the U.S. step in to broker a fragile ceasefire, offering both countries the needed face-saving off-ramp. The episode underscores the danger of the Trump admins isolationist reflex and the poor judgment of failing appraise crises that could easily endanger the United States.

Cambodia–Thailand: The Forgotten Front. When fighting broke out between Cambodia and Thailand, the U.S. was absent—no envoys, no statements, no pressure. A ceasefire was reached without American involvement. The region remains tense, and Washington’s disinterest underscores the Asia–Pacific blind spot unless there’s a headline or handshake.

Trade War as Peace Policy. Beyond military actions and photo-op agreements, the administration has expanded tariffs on nearly every major trading partner. Trade has become a blunt instrument of coercion—nations may sign weak, short-lived deals simply to avoid the next tariff hike, while future tariffs could unravel existing agreements. This may yield short-term compliance but undermines trust and long-term stability.

Russia–Ukraine: The Grand Prize. Trump’s initial overtures to Putin were ignored. He then briefly shifted to tougher rhetoric, threatening sanctions, more arms for Ukraine, and penalties on Russian energy exports. Now he has reversed again, agreeing to a leaders’ summit on U.S. soil—without a ceasefire and with parameters that appear to hand Russia a major win. Putin has already factored in confrontation with the West, secured Chinese support, and benefits from Trump’s unpredictability. It’s nearly inconceivable that Putin will abandon his ambition to control Ukraine, or that Zelensky will cede nearly 20% of Ukraine’s territory without security guarantees. On current terms, this summit risks being a propaganda victory for Moscow.

Trump can claim some movement on conflicts, but the most intractable ones remain beyond his grasp. While a few disputes have cooled and some agreements have been signed, most are fragile, driven by optics, and lack substantive guarantees. U.S. engagement has been erratic, reactive, and consistently filtered through personal political gain. This is not Pax Trumpiana—it is Turbatum Trumpianum, Trump’s Turmoil.