National Security Implications of GOP Chaos
I recently attended four national security conferences in Europe and returned with one overarching takeaway: Our closest allies are unsure of whether we will (or can) remain a partner given the chaos in our political system. In Germany, Czechia, and Austria, there were deep concerns over a second Trump Administration as well as many questions over what the absence of a Speaker of the House and a looming government shutdown as early as November would mean for the EuroAtlantic alliance. Our European friends recognize that Trump 2.0 would be an unmitigated disaster for the alliance, precipitate the collapse of NATO, and invite enemies such as Russia to sow chaos in Europe. The 2024 presidential election is still more than a year away, but many questions I received revolved around what would happen between now and then; I had some guesses but few comforting answers.
The chaos around the unseating of McCarthy and the selection of a less-known but equally radical Speaker of the House brought little comfort. It seems increasingly clear there will be a major fight over the $106 billion funding request submitted to Congress by President Biden. These funds are intended to support our strategic partner Ukraine while it continues to fight an existential world-shaping war against Russia and our longtime ally Israel as it attempts to reestablish security and end a perpetual threat from the terrorist group Hamas whose stated goal is the destruction of the state of Israel. These efforts are more than worthy of our support. Undoubtedly $106 billion is a lot of money, but for a $25-27 trillion economy growing at an annualized rate of 4.9%, it is a small investment in our partners’ and our own security. Also, the vast majority of that money is a reinvestment in our military industrial base replacing the military material provided to Ukraine and Israel with the newest and shiniest technology and weapons coming off production lines.
Speaker Johnson has already severed $60 billion in Ukraine funding and placed that discussion on the back burner. The debate on Ukraine funding may not occur until after a new budget is passed or there is an agreement for a new temporary continuing resolution to fund the government. That in itself is a gift to Putin as the administration and the Department of Defense will run out of budget tricks to continue to find money to fund Ukraine. There is no rationale or logic to obstructing aid to Ukraine other than it caters to the extreme wing of the Republican Party whose raison d'etre is to pander to Donald Trump who hates Ukraine and openly cheerleads for Russia. It’s just that simple.
Having no additional funding for Ukraine will be a national security disaster. The result of this approach will not be peace negotiations as many ignorantly suggest, but a continued grinding war in which Russia steadily gains the upper hand. Russia, Iran, their network of proxy terrorists, and China will view this as continued weakness and rot in the US and the West which will invite further predation.
Globalization isn’t just about economics, it’s also about security. Chaos in core portions of the globalized security environment invite opportunism and attack. G-d forbid we see the more major wars or 10/7 attacks out of this kind of chaos, but it is increasingly likely bad actors will seize this opportunity while we are divided and in disarray. Separating Israel and Ukraine funding is a ploy to fund one but not the other; given the globalization of security that is dangerous national security policy.
So what about Israel and $30 billion of funding to one of our oldest allies? Speaker Johnson is prepared to debate funding to Israel, but only in the context of offsets and cuts to programs. He wants to cut funding to entitlements, such as Social Security and Medicare, and the IRS. It’s nonsensical and damaging, but it’s red meat to the base and that is where their loyalties lie.
All of this is happening in the shadow of a continuing resolution that will expire in a few weeks while a major battle is brewing over funding the government. A shutdown would interrupt payments to government employees most of whom live paycheck to paycheck. It would also mean that our federal law enforcement, military personnel, air traffic controllers, and TSA workers would not be paid just as we enter Thanksgiving and the winter holidays. This is terrible for morale and retention and dangerous given the tumultuous security environment.
Why It Matters: The GOP chaos is undermining our alliances. We are becoming an unreliable partner. The chaos also presents opportunities for our adversaries to attack us and our allies. There is no easy prescription to ending the chaos and we will likely have to suffer through much more chaos throughout the next year but as we approach an election day, it a reminder that elections matter. As we are told time and again, elections have consequences so remember to vote in your local elections next Tuesday and Make Right Matter.
MAGA Rep. Mike Johnson has a self-professed worldview that is extremely limited and for as long as he holds the gavel to the House Speaker’s Chair will continue to be a manifestation of his singularly narrow myopic one book trick for holding all of America hostage to his unacceptable Christian nationalist rhetoric.
Excellent newsletter. Thank you.
Unfortunately, too many Americans are oblivious to the fact that our spending in Ukraine and Israel, as well as South East Asia helps our Allie’s and is a great, long term investment, to make sure our economy and partners in the region stay strong, so we don’t have to fight one day, which would cost trillions and simultaneously destroy our economy.
I consider the investment similar to supporting the Kurds in Syria. For tens of millions, not hundreds of billions, our support allowed the Kurds to destroy ISIL and the caliphate on the cheap; until the orange blowhard decided to betray the Kurds for 20 pieces of silver from an authoritarian kleptocrat in Turkey; whose name isn’t worth mentioning.
The Republicans continue to undermine our foreign policy whenever possible. Enabling our adversaries to continue to plot against us.
This guy Johnson is a nightmare. He thinks denying the IRS funds is the way to pay for Israel’s military aid, when the IRS collects revenue. The funding to the IRS pays for itself; unless, of course, like most republicans, they’re bought and paid for by right-wing billionaires and tax cheats.
Additionally, how did we get a religious fanatic as speaker? The guy lives his life based on the Bible; believing the earth was formed in seven days and the separation of church and state isn’t explicitly written in the constitution, so it doesn’t exist. I guess he never heard of the Establishment Clause in the constitution.
Bottom line: I don’t know what to expect, except fanatics like Johnson are ruthless, relentless and shouldn’t be allowed in the Capitol building, unless on a public tour.
My gut tells me there will be another government shutdown unless democrats and even Republican senators agree to their ridiculous demands that will cause immense and unnecessary damage to our economy and relationships throughout the globe.
Good times!....:)