January 2024 Geopolitical Outlook

This year will be one of great perils both at home and abroad. The challenges to stability and security are far more complex than this time last year. As the Russia-Ukraine war continues with no sign of abating through, a second major flashpoint has emerged in the Middle East. The Israel-Hamas war is expanding into a regional conflict with the Iranian-proxy Houthis––operating out of Yemen––disrupting commercial shipping around the Red Sea and Arabian Gulf and another Iranian-proxy Hezbollah conducting a terror campaign against northern Israel from southern Lebanon. Moving east, China is now under the indefinite leadership of General Secretary Xi who continues to amp up the rhetoric around the potential military conquest of Taiwan on the cusp of Taiwanese general elections. And China continues to militarize annexed shoals and Islands increasing tensions in the South and East China Seas. In South America, Venezuela has reignited tensions with its tiny neighbor Guyana over newly discovered oil reserves, threatening to use military force to seize territory under Guyanan control, but disputed since the 19^th Century. In Africa, radical Islamic terrorists as well as Russian mercenaries continue to destabilize central Africa threatening political and humanitarian crises.

This time last year, the geopolitical focus was singular and simpler, the United States and the world were focused on the Russia-Ukraine war. It was less than a year into the war and there was still a great deal of optimism over Ukraine’s prospects after Ukraine scored some stunning battlefield successes around Kharkiv and in the southern region of Kherson. Due to multiple factors, including lack of western support, the second year of the conflict proved to be far less decisive, dashing expectations of further Ukrainian victories. The geopolitical consequences of the second year of war and the expectations for the third of war provide a great deal of concern as danger seem to lurk from nearly all corners.

Obviously not all the geopolitical conflicts emanate from the Russia-Ukraine war directly. Many of the geopolitical challenges have emerged from authoritarian opportunists and the perception that the era of Pax Americana is over. Our enemies are becoming increasingly comfortable with challenging the rules of the post-Cold War order because they see little consequence in doing so. This partially stems from the fact that the U.S. has led a security order with too many free riders unwilling to invest in both their own and collective security (e.g. NATO free riders). Additionally, over twenty years of war in Iraq and Afghanistan both sapped U.S. strength and likely damaged the perception of US invincibility, inviting system challengers like Russia to explore upending the rules and norms of the past thirty years.

To be clear there is no single casual factor for the instability in the geopolitical system. It is the confluence of short and long-term, emergent and systemic, and internal and external factors that has brought about the instability we are witnessing. However, the lack of strategic focus and the perception of U.S. indecision regard support to Ukraine is a key contributor to the growing volatility.

Clearly, I believe one of the most important security measures the U.S. can take towards stabilizing the security environment is to aid Ukraine and thus set conditions for Ukraine to defeat Russia. But the other even more critical step is in the hands of the American public. The perception of U.S. weakness emanating from domestic political turmoil can be ended with a resounding defeat and sweeping away of Donald Trump’s MAGA movement. I invite you to join me in working on both the foreign policy and domestic fronts to secure U.S. interests at home and abroad.  

Happy New Year to you all! Thank you for your continued support and engagement. We all have a lot of work to do!