How North Carolina Could Decide the 2024 Election

A Path to Victory Through Josh Stein's Race Against MAGA Mark Robinson

At last week’s debate, we heard two very different visions for the future of our country. While Kamala Harris outlined her plans to lead our country forward and create an “opportunity economy,” Donald Trump spewed the same tired lies and hatred aimed at dividing us. Not only was I appalled by his racist vitriol, but it was also clear to me that his mental faculties are in rapid decline. Unable to maintain a consistent train of thought, Trump rambled throughout and eschewed policy discussions for outrageous conspiracies.

As satisfying as it was to watch a clueless and frail Trump fail to respond to basic questions, the unfortunate chaos in Ohio highlighted the genuine threat posed by his rhetoric. Trump’s only means of riling up his base is to prey on the vulnerable and engender hatred, and our adversaries accurately see him as weak and manipulable. If he struggled so greatly on the debate stage, imagine how disastrous his negotiations with other world leaders would be. 

But we are not going back. 

Kamala Harris demonstrated she is ready to be the next generation of American leadership. The polls show that the vast majority of Americans saw through Trump’s lies and believe Kamala thoroughly bested him in the debate.

And yet, this race will be close. The Electoral College system means that most of our votes will be rendered irrelevant as we collectively await the outcome in a few critical swing states. The outsized importance of these states dictates the attention they receive from the media and the campaigns themselves. That being said, I was keenly interested to see which state would be Kamala’s choice for her first post-debate rally. The answer: North Carolina.

Last Thursday, Kamala held two massive rallies in the state with one of them filling an arena of more than 17,000 people. 538 currently lists North Carolina as the second most likely tipping point state after Pennsylvania. To win this race, it is important that the Harris campaign has as many paths as possible to 270 electoral votes, and North Carolina is key to many of the most viable. Simply put, Trump cannot win a second term without winning NC.

With this in mind, it is important to understand North Carolina’s political history. In 2020 NC was the state Trump won by the smallest margin – just over 1% of the vote. Although the Tar Heel State has a pattern of voting red in presidential elections, it elects Democrats to the Governor’s Mansion at a similar rate. In 2008, Barack Obama managed to flip the state blue for the first time in decades, and if Kamala’s massive rallies in the state last week are any indication, there is a similar upwelling of energy this cycle. Although somewhat an outlier in modern politics, North Carolina has demonstrated that its voting population responds to candidate quality and is willing to vote for candidates of different parties on the same ticket. In fact, more NC voters are registered as “Unaffiliated” than are members of either party.

There is another aspect that makes North Carolina unique among the battleground states – it is the only one with a gubernatorial election this year. The distinction between the two candidates for governor in the state is just as jarring as what we saw on display at the presidential debate.

The Democratic candidate is current state Attorney General Josh Stein. Stein is a thoughtful, dedicated public servant with a record of winning statewide even while Trump ekes out victories at the top of the same ticket. Stein has been an effective AG, working to protect the right to vote and leading the bipartisan effort to address the devastating opioid epidemic. He has focused his campaign on the issues that matter to the people of North Carolina: improving public education, keeping communities safe, building an economy that works for everyone, and protecting abortion rights.

His opponent, current Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson, has focused on a different set of issues. Robinson is a holocaust denier who believes men, not women, are called to lead. He wants to completely ban abortion without any exceptions and has referred to the LBGTQ+ community as “filth”. He called the victims of the Parkland school shooting “media prosti-tots,” and has repeatedly used violent language, including just a few weeks ago when he declared, “Some folks need killing”. A comprehensive list of Robinson’s disqualifying statements would be too long to include, so these highlights will have to suffice (although I encourage you to do more research at realmarkrobinson.com). In summary, Robinson is a dangerous conspiracy theorist who has proven himself utterly unfit to serve in the highest office in the state.

These statements are, of course, terrifying. Luckily, Josh Stein is running an effective campaign which seems to be working. Stein has released several ads that simply consist of Robinson’s own words, and the latter’s polling numbers have plummeted. The RealClearPolling average currently has Stein up by a margin of 9.4, which has been steadily growing as North Carolinians learn who their choices are. The people of NC want a governor who will fight for them, not fight job-killing culture wars aimed at sowing division. Many Republicans and right-leaning Unaffiliated voters do not feel comfortable voting for such an extremist and are considering voting for Stein or not voting altogether.

For a state as purple as North Carolina, that lead is unusually large and has a real chance to affect the presidential race. As Stein’s lead has grown, there has been a simultaneous shift in the presidential numbers. Recent polling out of the state indicates that it is essentially dead even, with some polls even showing Harris up - although not near the margins of the gubernatorial race.

These facts present a unique possible impact on the presidential race. The more successful the Stein campaign is at communicating with voters, the more likely it is that Kamala will win the state and thus the election. Unfortunately, the race is likely to tighten as we near November. Stein’s previous statewide victories were each by less than half a percentage point. National Republicans will dump money into the state and it will be a battle all the way to election day. But, if the Stein campaign can continue blasting the airwaves with these devastating ads, I fully believe that this race will help deliver NC for Kamala.

With all that being said, I encourage each of you to do your research on this race, and if you are able, to consider donating to Attorney General Josh Stein at joshstein.org. This race might be a critical factor in deciding who controls the White House, and this is a state that often comes down to just a few thousand votes. If we all do our part, I believe that we will secure a brighter future for our country. I am optimistic because I know that when we fight, we win.