Global Security Overview

What I'm watching around the world this week

Photo by NASA on Unsplash

This is a weekly update on what I’m watching around the world that I intend to provide regularly. It doesn’t cover everything, but these are possible flashpoints I see and an update on current conflicts. I welcome your questions in the comments and in the Notes feature on Substack. I will do my best to answer your questions in a video I will post this weekend which will be available to paid subscribers. I’m still trying to determine the best battle rhythm for this space and I welcome your help and feedback for that.

South China Sea:

The South China Sea remains a major geopolitical hotspot. China's aggressive territorial claims in the region have led to provocative actions against the Philippines' fishermen, coast guard, and navy. With China’s claims extending into the Philippines' exclusive economic zone, tensions have been on the rise. China aims to establish an exclusive operational zone in both the South and East China Seas, yet the U.S. has signaled that it will not remain a passive observer.

Global Elections:

The recent Polish elections ushered in a pro-Western democratic coalition that will oversee the parliament and appoint the Prime Minister, likely meaning increased cooperation with the European Union. This is a positive shift from the previously observed anti-democratic, populist trends in the country. With Poland's supportive stance towards Ukraine, this new government might alleviate some of Germany's criticisms.

In Argentina, the presidential elections are headed for a runoff between a nationalist and a progressive. The outcome will undoubtedly influence Argentina's position in global politics.

Nagorno-Karabakh:

In late September, Azerbaijan conducted a large-scale military offensive against Nagorno Karabakh, an autonomous Armenian ethnic enclave. Azerbaijan has effectively taken control, leading to a significant exodus of the Armenian population. Concerns are now rising about potential ethnic cleansing and the possibility of the conflict spilling over into Armenia proper. Azerbaijan's desire for a corridor across Armenian territory adds another layer to the dispute, especially with Turkey's support for Azerbaijan and Russia's interest in the region's instability.

Canada-India:

Recent events have strained Canada's relationship with India. The alleged assassination of a Canadian Sikh critic of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government by the Indian security state presents a potential challenge to diplomatic ties. This situation highlights a troubling trend of democratic backsliding globally, straining relations among prominent democracies.

Insights from European Conferences:

In my recent European engagements, several key takeaways emerged. Attending a conference in Berlin, organized by the Green Party, emphasized the continued German support for Ukraine.

A separate conference on Russia projected two distinct future scenarios based on Ukraine's fate. Ukraine liberating its occupied territories paints a brighter security landscape for the West. In contrast, a Russian victory suggests heightened global tensions, with Europe becoming a hotbed of conflicts.

Israel-Hamas:

The tragic attack on Israeli civilians on October 7th brought back painful memories and the horrors of the events that day cannot be adequately expressed. The attack has raised questions about Israel's security posture, especially concerning Prime Minister Netanyahu's decisions related to West Bank settlements. With the extent of Israel’s ground offensive into Gaza still unclear, the international community is watching closely, anticipating significant blowback. The embedding of Hamas within Gaza's civilian infrastructure makes any Israeli response more complicated, risking significant civilian casualties.

While humanitarian challenges are on the rise, the blame appears disproportionately shifted towards Israel. Egypt, for instance, hasn't fully facilitated the ingress of humanitarian support into Gaza, perhaps wary of the spillover effects of Hamas into Egyptian territory. As a security analyst, one cannot ignore Israel's fundamental right and obligation to secure its borders. The democratic nation-state is held accountable to its citizens, and its inability to provide safety could destabilize the region.

Israel has faced criticism for restricting fuel to Gaza — fuel essential for vital services like hospitals — but there is evidence to suggest Hamas might be diverting significant fuel reserves for other operational purposes. This ongoing saga underscores the challenge of apportioning blame. From a security analyst's viewpoint, Israel's chief priority appears to be safeguarding its borders and populace.

Hezbollah, another prominent group in the region, seems cautious about escalating the situation, likely to avoid a strong Israeli response. Meanwhile, Iran appears keen to capitalize on these tensions without directly provoking Israel or the U.S. Interestingly, Qatar has emerged as a hub for diplomatic engagements with Hamas. As the situation unfolds, there are calls for the U.S. to exert more pressure on Qatar to refrain from providing safe havens to organizations deemed terrorist entities.

The U.S. has also been actively repositioning its military assets in the region, with two carrier strike groups and an array of air combat capabilities at the ready. The intention appears twofold: to deter adversaries and to prepare for potential contingencies. Recent attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria by Iranian proxies underscore the volatility of the situation.

The U.S. continues to counsel Israel, ensuring that its military actions remain within the confines of international laws of war and minimize collateral damage. Yet, many have been quick to critique Israel's actions, often ignoring the incessant missile attacks from Gaza on Israeli territories. The plight of hostages, including U.S. citizens, remains inadequately addressed in the global dialogue on how Israel should respond.

Russia-Ukraine:

President Biden's recent speech drew an important parallel between Hamas' attacks on Israel and Russia's actions in Ukraine, emphasizing the chaos they generate. Russia’s invasion is likely to embolden other state actors or terrorist states to exploit opportunities against the U.S. and its allies.

Ukrainians have made incremental advances in the south but haven't achieved any significant breakthroughs. The progress thus far in the counteroffensive has been somewhat disappointing, as there was hope for more sustained territorial success. In the east, Russia persists in its offensive in the Donbas region, despite significant losses. These losses include reports of 1,300 or more casualties on certain days and the destruction of hundreds of pieces of military equipment.

The Ukrainians are reinforcing their positions to prevent Russian encirclement in key regions. The outcome remains uncertain as both sides possess the capability to impact the conflict's trajectory. Russia appears to be preparing for significant strikes against Ukrainian critical infrastructure, particularly as winter approaches. Although Ukraine has received ample air defense resources, there's a tangible risk that Russian drones and cruise missiles might overwhelm these defenses. However, it should be noted that Ukraine continues to make commendable efforts in defending its crucial infrastructure.

On the water, Ukraine continues to navigate the Black Sea, maintaining a vital grain corridor despite Russia's attempts at imposing an embargo. This resilience is noteworthy given Ukraine's limited naval presence against what is [considered to be] a formidable Russian navy. The ability to operate its commercial fleet and ensure grain supplies is a testament to the Ukrainian tenacity we have seen so frequently throughout this conflict.

In these tumultuous times, staying informed and understanding the intricate dynamics of geopolitics is crucial. I'll continue to provide updates and insights as events unfold so that you understand Why It Matters.