Geopolitical Flash Points
What I'm watching this week
Jumping right in…
When I look around the world at the ground level, I see quite a bit of systemic geopolitical instability. This is evident from the significant protests occurring globally, more so in democratic nations than in authoritarian ones. Notably, large-scale protests in support of Palestinians aren't seen in countries like Egypt or Saudi Arabia, where control is tight. However, in democratic nations large-scale protests, often by far-left factions, are occurring. These protests are in support of Palestinians, sympathetic to groups like Hamas, and consistently anti-Israel. This phenomenon is evident in both Europe and the United States and mostly fall along sectarian lines.
There's a notable divide between broader populations and recent immigrants from the Middle East, in both the U.S. and Europe. As an immigrant myself, it is interesting to observe people identifying with their place of origin as with their new homes. Such a divide can be a recipe for continued unrest. There's also a generational divide, particularly evident between Gen Z and older generations, which is exacerbated by an informational gap driven by platforms like TikTok where anyone can offer a soundbite of information that receives no vetting or fact checking, but is often accepted as truth. This superficial handling of exceedingly complex challenges, such as the Israel-Hamas conflict, creates fertile ground for exploitation.
I view these issues as ongoing challenges particularly in terms of media literacy and the sources from which people derive their information. This is crucial because it influences how people act and mobilize. I recently wrote about Russian active measures, how they’re employed, and how I see them in the Israel-Hamas conflict. The bottom line is active measures are meant to exploit existing divides and tensions in order to stir up chaos because chaos creates opportunity.
I’m surprised to observe the level of support Israel is receiving from Middle Eastern leaders. The support is more in the form of actions, despite some sharp rhetoric. The criticism that has emerged seems more like an effort to pacify the passions of the populations who have strong anti-Israel and antisemitic sentiments. The Saudis, for example, have openly labeled Hamas a terrorist organization and accused them of oppressing Palestinians. Similarly, Egypt and Jordan have been relatively quiet. Overall there is significant support for Israel, especially from Sunni states, in contrast to Shia-aligned nations like Iran that supports both Hezbollah and Hamas. This regional support is a recent development and a departure from historical trends. Despite this establishment support, grassroots protests continue. This dichotomy between state-level support and public demonstrations, both in the Middle East and the West, is noteworthy. The Arab street may still drive a sharper policy towards Israel returning to historical patterns
Russia-Ukraine War
Currently, U.S. aid to Ukraine is separate from aid to Israel or the Palestinian civilian population, and future support is uncertain. The federal government reportedly has about $1B left for Ukraine aid.
Recent reports suggest a change in warfare dynamics. The Chief of the General Staff of Ukraine has indicated a shift to positional warfare, signifying a move to more static, localized engagements rather than broad offensives. This shift implies a more restricted, seesaw pattern of local attacks.
Russian forces continue combat operations in the southeast, attempting to advance near Donetsk but without substantial gain. Analysis suggests that ending the war decisively on the battlefield is not viable in the foreseeable future. The U.S. government appears to believe it has done as much as it can. The Biden administration seems content to just maintain a current base level of support but this is not enough to truly change the course of the conflict. It may even be a recipe for disaster if Russia mobilizes more resources and gains the initiative for offensive operations in the second half of 2024. To force Putin to reassess his thinking, it is necessary to dramatically increase our support and consider extending a NATO invitation to Ukraine.
Russian capabilities and willingness to mobilize forces are notable. They have been replenishing losses and building reserves more subtly than in their large-scale mobilization last year. This method seems sufficient for their current needs. Looking ahead, Putin's elections in March 2024 could be a turning point. Post-election, a broader mobilization and more decisive military actions could be anticipated, potentially aimed at achieving political objectives in Ukraine and embarrassing the West. This situation highlights the Biden administration's oversight in underestimating the need for early support in Ukraine, thus leading to a prolonged conflict.
In addition to his comments on the state of the conflict, the Chief of the General Staff of Ukraine released a position paper detailing the war's challenges. He highlighted the difficulties in breaching Russian fortifications, a lack of engineering assets, and challenges in electronic warfare with the Russians using technology to make the battlefield highly transparent. However, his analysis may not fully reflect the deficiencies in Ukrainian forces' combined arms capabilities and their ability to synchronize different military elements. He also downplayed the importance of logistics, a crucial aspect of any professional military force. Ukraine needs to accept that being granted superior technology is not a silver bullet in this conflict and they have fundamental organizational issues that need to be addressed.
While there are significant challenges for their ground forces, it should be said that the Ukrainians have shown high morale and made key advances, particularly in UAVs and naval capabilities. They're doing very well on long-range strikes and have significantly degraded Russia's ability to operate in the Black Sea. The question is whether or not they can hold on and for how long.
On the political front, the 2024 U.S. presidential elections and potential NATO signaling are crucial. The single most important thing we can do to help Ukraine is ensure Donald Trump does not become President. Furthermore, The EU has adopted a forward-leaning stance on Ukraine's accession, and NATO needs to follow suit. Russia's stockpiling of long-range strike capabilities and potential targeting of Ukraine's energy infrastructure as winter approaches are concerning developments. The West's response to these challenges will be critical in the coming months.
Why It Matters: It’s difficult to distill the importance of these issues. If it were simple, I could make a TikTok video but geopolitics are more complex than that. As always, I welcome your comments and questions.
“I’m surprised to observe the level of support Israel is receiving from Middle Eastern leaders. The support is more in the form of actions, despite some sharp rhetoric.”
I’m not surprised. The Sunni gulf states view Iran and its proxies as a larger threat than Israel. In fact, Israel isn’t a threat to them at all.
However, organizations like Hamas and Islamic Jihad are a threat to Egypt, Jordan and the other Sunni gulf states since they want to create a single caliphate as one pan-Arab nation in the mold of Nasser and Saddam. And Hamas originated as an offshoot to the Muslim Brotherhood which was responsible for assassinating Sadat after he made peace with Israel in 1977.
Israel has had behind the scenes relationships with the Sunni Gulf states for decades. The Saudi’s have even allowed the Israeli’s to stage bombing campaigns into Iran, from their airspace.
That’s why the Abraham Accords is nothing more than a political stunt. It accomplished nothing since most of these countries, including many North African states, Egypt and Jordan have had relationships going back to the 1970’s.
On a side note, a lot of the issues when it comes to misinformation and lies has more to do with the biases and partisanship of some of the mass media, as opposed to generational biases. Where you get your information matters.
Furthermore, Right-wing billionaires are buying big media conglomerates and re-programming to be more pro-Trump and pro Russia.
Case in point: Univision, a large Spanish media conglomerate was recently purchased by a friend of Kushner and has reprogrammed their network to be better pro-Trump, and it’s having a huge impact on Trump’s support by Latinos.
Just some thoughts...:)
“If it were simple, I could make a TikTok video but geopolitics are more complex than that.”
This closing sentence speaks volumes to many of the problems we face in domestic issues too. Vast numbers of people simply do not grasp let alone understand the true complexities and nuances behind the current rebellion taking place within government at all levels. These problems have Putin’s support in innumerable covert ways; hence the importance of your previous post focusing on active measures.