Conclusions About Trump's General Election Prospects After Iowa

2024 will be a tough year. Just look at my recent post outlining my outlook on this year’s geopolitical issues. And now that we have the results from Iowa, it’s clear that Donald Trump will be on the ballot this November. Yet, as I have been considering the results from Iowa this week, a clear narrative has emerged regarding Trump's bid for re-election. I had figured this would be the case, but now we have data to back it up: Trump faces a challenging path to victory, marked by a lack of broad support within his own party and especially among independent voters.

The Iowa caucuses have traditionally been a barometer for presidential campaigns, offering early insights into a candidate's appeal and organizational strength. Although Trump won the state with about 51% of the vote, his margin of victory in Iowa is somewhat misleading. The turnout figures tel…